To: lorne who wrote (18536 ) 12/18/2002 11:37:38 AM From: GUSTAVE JAEGER Respond to of 23908 Told you so... (on Israel's escalation endgame) [*]World > Middle East from the December 18, 2002 edition Iraq question raises tension on Israel's northern border Israel said Monday that if Hizbullah fires missiles, Israel may be compelled to respond.By Nicholas Blanford | Special to The Christian Science Monitor BEAUFORT CASTLE, LEBANON - Israel's tolerance of Lebanon's Hizbullah organization may be coming to an end, raising the specter of a potentially devastating cross-border conflict between the two enemies. The prospect of a US-led invasion of Iraq is raising concern that Israel may launch an offensive against the heavily armed guerrilla force poised along its northern border in an attempt to crush its implacable Shiite Muslim foe once and for all. A Western diplomat in Beirut says that an Israeli assault against Hizbullah is becoming "a very likely scenario." "If Hizbullah makes any mistakes when the Americans are in Iraq, it will give Israel a golden opportunity," the diplomat says. Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hizbullah's deputy secretary-general, admits that the group is prepared for "all eventualities." "It's very possible that Sharon will take advantage of a US attack on Iraq to push forward his plans for the Palestinians and Lebanon and we have to be very ready for that possibility," Sheikh Qassem says. "We know that a decision for an all-out attack can come at any moment. The enemy can open the battle, but they will have difficulty in closing it and controlling its consequences." According to an Israeli army radio report cited by the Associated Press, Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz warned Monday that if Hizbullah fires long-range missiles at Israel, Israel may be compelled to counterattack. [snip]csmonitor.com Not surprisingly, mainstream media scramble the actual course of actions by reporting its causes and effects upside down... So the above article should rather read as: [...] The prospect of an aborted US-led invasion of Iraq is raising concern that Israel may launch an offensive against the heavily armed guerrilla force poised along its northern border in an attempt to trigger a US-led assault on Iraq. [...] "If the US fails to take on Iraq, it will compel Israel to strike Lebanon" the diplomat says. [...] "It's very possible that Sharon will take advantage of a US de-escalation with Iraq to push forward his plans for the Palestinians and Lebanon and we have to be very ready for that possibility," Sheikh Qassem says. "We know that a decision for an all-out attack can come at any moment. The enemy can open the battle, but they will have difficulty in closing it and controlling its consequences." [...] ________________________________ [*] Message 18219179