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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10631)	12/18/2002 11:41:11 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

A U.S. Dollar Bear gold-eagle.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10631)	12/18/2002 11:56:49 AM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

wont engage the Raptor in his Den Just thought you might find it interesting. More generally my market involvement is episodic - i.e. there's more to life than Wall Street. When this particular episode began in July, I noticed that you had become a Gold Bug. At the time I had no opinion on the yellow dog. After watching the market (make that markets) for about six months, I believe that gold is near the beginning of a secular bull move. Moreover I believe, for many years in the US market, gold will be one of the few items in a secular bull move. OTOH, I don't believe gold will consistently rocket higher. I currently suspect that from some where in the middle of '03 to the latter part of '06, any move will be muted. Just a guess. But as an ole coin collector, I'll still enjoy my double eagles. <g> As usual, all JMO. Edit: Another view investorshub.com lurqer

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10631)	12/18/2002 4:25:43 PM
From: Mannie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Jimbob, yer old flame has been on a tear since you dumped her.. tse-cdnx.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10631)	12/18/2002 5:05:20 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Message 18351067

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10631)	12/18/2002 5:31:43 PM
From: crdesign	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

SPIN CONTROL ALERT! Bill Siedman just finished his commentary with Ron Insane-a on CNBC. He said the Fed is welcoming a weaker dollar; thinks it will be healthy! He also said GET THIS; The Dollar is the ULTIMATE safe haven for investors because we have such a strong economy. Is CNBC trying to compete with Comedy Central? Jim, How long was it you predicted that CNBC will be off the air? Tim

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10631)	12/19/2002 9:15:01 AM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

FMC Analysis Warns Of `The Overheated Mortgage Machine` WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The rapid growth in mortgage debt and the broad distribution of "agency" securities across the financial system has exposed banks and other financial intermediaries, including the government-sponsored enterprises themselves, to considerable risk in the event that interest rates rise and/or housing prices fall. Or so warns the Financial Markets Center, an independent, nonprofit research entity, in a new analysis. Agency securities, in bond market parlance, prominently include those issued by the housing-related GSEs - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System. "In addition to their own mortgage loans, banks hold 16.6% ($890 billion) of outstanding agency issues, while thrift institutions and credit unions own another 4.9% ($264.8 billion)," the FMC said in an analysis entitled "The Overheated Mortgage Machine." "Private pension funds and public-employee retirement funds have 7.9% ($425.4 billion) of these securities and mutual funds hold 13.4% ($718.4 billion)," the FMC said. "Unlike these institutional investors, households do not own substantial volumes of agency paper outright," the analysis continued. "However, households are indirectly exposed to the GSEs' fortunes through the holdings of their pension and mutual funds. If rising interest rates triggered a decline in the value of agency securities, household net worth would diminish as a result of these holdings." The analysis said the third quarter surge in residential lending by banks "reflects a steady transformation of deposit-taking institutions into a housing-finance colossus that supports - and is supported by - the quasi-governmental institutions (GSEs), which channel savings into mortgages." It said this transformation has compounded imbalances within credit markets by flooding homebuilders and homeowners with borrowed cash while sectors such as manufacturing go betting for funds. The analysis said home equity borrowing is a poor substitute for increased profits, investment, employment and disposable income, and that consumption spending financed by excessive debt accumulation isn't a path to sustainable recover. "The bursting of a mortgage bubble could unleash broader financial disruptions with deeper macroeconomic implications than the shakeout following the S&L crisis of the 1980s," the analysis warned.