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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (61610)	12/18/2002 5:04:48 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

You misunderstand, I don't think rates will move lower, I'm short the bonds right now... I think the Dollar will continue lower, but stock can still move higher, at least that's what the charts are showing me... GZ

To: Real Man who wrote (61610)	12/18/2002 5:59:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 94695

a lower dollar would be healthy for the economy but a declining dollar (to get there) will be horrendous huge subtle difference which addresses the main point I have been making for months THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE WILL PUT USA FINANCIAL MARKETS AT RISK, MAJOR RISK, AS FOREIGNERS WILL TAKE FLIGHT FROM OUR MARKETS the biggest risks are for higher bond yields, more inflation the Fed cannot have it both ways, lower dollar and still low rates foreigners will demand a risk premium on bonds lower dollar will result in somewhat higher prices here I liken it to working on a ladder on 3rd floor painting you get much more work done with no ladder, on 1st floor much healthier, more stable, easier balance act now imagine falling off the ladder you cannot get much work down when careening downward nor when slipping downward and you usually earn a broken back or broken legs or broken hip the spring/summer decline in the dollar was big the stock market took the brunt, with bonds benefiting but now the bond rally is done gone, ask PIMCO's Gross in the next downleg, I doubt bonds will be benefiting and I am sure stocks will be losers again in the third downleg, a near panic will ensue with stocks & bonds in decline together that is how I see it anyone who thinks a lower dollar is good for the US Economy overlooks the nightmare in getting there we have a deeply indebted economy we have an economy deeply dependent on foreign capital those who think this way dont know shit about shit / jim