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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (465)	12/20/2002 8:29:15 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

GOOD MORNING ALL...OK WE HAD A SOLID PULLBACK HERE..IS SANTA HERE?<G>...WE'LL SEE...P&F LOOKS WORSE BY THE DAY..AND THIS IS "NOT" OCT..NO CAPITULATION NO HEAVY SELLING...BULLS ARE STILL AT 50%...I WANT TO SEE WHAT THIS SHORT RALLY LOOKS LIKE..OH AND BTW..IT'S A SHORT...GOOD LUCK... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED 15TH DEC 2002 "IMPLOSION LOOMING THIS WEEK" Merry Xmas everyone, I want to wish all of you a very happy and healthy holiday season as we move thru the end of the year...2002 has been exciting, adventurous and rewarding beyond all expectations...I only hope it's been as good for all of you... In fact "THE" best thing that could have happened to me is my parting company with that "OTHER" room... I love being my own boss trading with my friends and colleagues, and enjoying each other's personalities and idiosyncrasies too...hehehehehe..let's keep up the great collective work and continue to move thru this treacherous market that we know and love... Well I can tell you this much everyone...After looking the charts of all the major indexes things do not look good at all..In fact we could simply IMPLODE this week...Every single chart looks very bad here...unless we can reverse up right now the markets are going down hard right into cycle lows this week...As a historical backtest of cycle lows and Options Expiration Week?, it usually is worse than expected...Meaning they rock the hell out of those that are long...I am suggesting that "IF" we break my alerts then you should take evasive action on ALL LONGS... Now let's talk about this for a minute...Hedging your long portfolio/IRA is easy...You either SELL OUTRIGHT, BUY PROTECTIVE PUTS, OR WRITE COVERED CALLS USING THE JAN STRIKE MONTH...Ok? any questions please e-mail me and I'll help you with your proper strike....for the stock....If in fact this event does happen you could even write ITM(in the money) calls..meaning below where you purchase the stock and take in large premium...just a thought... I want to talk about tax loss selling during Dec...It happens every year. The Fund Managers sell their dogs with fleas before the end of the year, and try to own the big cap big boy stocks in their ports to "SHOW" the people they're doing the RIGHT thing? yeah right!. Sure they are!!!!...Then what happens? They start re buying those dogs early in Jan to capture the Small Cap Rally...These small caps bounce hard during that time frame as they grab them up again hoping for a BIG winner...Will it happen this year again? Only time will tell... I want to visit how to trade the trend of the day...First what is a trend day?..We try to determine as soon as possible which way they are going to trade it each and everyday..I think it's very important for all of us to come into the day neutral..No bias, just right in the middle...Now once we open for trading, I watch the futures and look to see if we take out yesterdays highs or lows early..if not..then watch the first 30 minutes and then if we take out the DAYS high or low we are usually heading toward that trend..THEN IF WE TAKE OUT YESTERDAYS HIGH OR LOWS WE ARE WITHOUT A DOUBT IN A TREND DAY.. What does this mean to you as a trader?..Do not fight that trend! Only if we call a turn would you even think about going in the opposite direction...You must have live futures quotes folks..get them...Try to stay in your trade as long as the markets moving with you..use trailing stops at all times...and for all you newbies--- AUTOMATICALLY TAKE THE FIRST SOLID TRADE OF THE DAY FOR $.50 CENTS..NO EXCEPTIONS FOR AT LEAST 90 DAYS..LOCK IT IN...BOOK IT DANO!..,It's the only way to go till your confidence is built up...NO EXCEPTIONS.... OK LET'S LOOK AT ALL THE INDEXES...THE MARKETS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE HERE "IF" THESE INDEXES BREAKDOWN EARLY THIS WEEK...OF COURSE...WE'LL BE SHORT ALL OVER IT... DJIA---THIS INDEX TOPPED OUT AT 9000 IN EARLY DEC AS ALL THE INDEXES DID THE SAME THING...IT'S FALLEN STRAIGHT DOWN NO REVERSAL YET. THERE IS IMMEDIATE SUPPORT (S) AT 8350 AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL).. A BREAK OF THAT LINE IS NOT GOOD AND ANY BREAK OF 8200/8100 IS VERY BAD...I DO NOT LIKE THE LOOK OF THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) EITHER... NAZ/COMPX---IN A SERIOUS POSITION RIGHT HERE...IT TOPPED OUT AT 1520 THEN FELL VERY FAST TO A "TRIPLE BOTTOM TEST"...1360 IS THAT MAJOR BREAK...WE'RE ALREADY AT 1362.50...1ST TARGET IS 1320 QUICKLY...THIS INDEX HAS THE SAME "LOOK" ON THE DCC..NOT GOOD... SOX---REAL TROUBLE HERE FOLKS...IDENTICAL LOOK AS THE TWO ABOVE.. 305 IS A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK DOWN BELOW THE BSL...AT 300...275 1ST TARGET... BTK---TRYING TO HOLD UP SO FAR, BUT I DOUBT IT WILL IF WE BREAKDOWN EVERYWHERE ELSE. 340 IS S...335 THE BREAKDOWN, ANOTHER SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK...TARGET 305..YIKES!. BBH--BIO TECH HOLDERS TRUST...AN ETF..TRADES JUST LIKE A STOCK...AND CAN BE SHORTED WITHOUT AN UPTICK. LOOKS LIKE IT'S SETTING UP AS AN EXCELLENT SHORT HERE..86.60 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST)...NOW "IF" IT BREAKS 84 YOU WOULD STAY SHORT HARD...85 IS VERY HEAVY S...SO THERE WILL BE A BATTLE THERE FIRST.... SPX---A PERFECT DOJI AT DEC 2ND...LOWER TOPS ALL THE WAY TO HERE...SETTING UP A HEAD AND SHOULDERS BREAKDOWN...870 IS HEAVY S..WITH 865 THE BIG TIME BREAK..REMEMBER WE HIT 870 AND BOUNCED UP BIG TIME ALL THE WAY TO 954...SO IF WE TAKE IT OUT HERE..I CAN ONLY SEE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION... SPOOOS--ES03H--SPZ3---THIS FUTURES INDEX JUST BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM ON FRIDAY AT 888..VERY VERY NEGATIVE...872/870 THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND...GEE WHIZ THIS THING COULD GO ANYWHERE...BTW SAME DOJI AT DEC 2ND... VIX---BASING HERE, WATCH 37 THE DOUBLE TOP BREAK...IF IT PRINTS 30 THAT WOULD MEAN WE ARE MOVING UP IN THE MARKETS...I THINK FEAR WILL RETURN TO THE MARKETS QUICKLY... WATCH FOR A SPIKE.. VXN---DOUBLE TOPPED OUT AT 56, REVERSED BACK DOWN TO HEAVY S...AT 51...54 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP WITH 57 A BIG TIME BREAKOUT THAT IS INVERSE AND NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS... ALL IN ALL FOLKS A VERY PRECARIOUS SITUATION IN THE MARKETS THIS WEEK...IF THEY ALL BREAK DOWN TOGETHER THIS COULD BE VERY VERY BAD FOR THOSE LONGS...AND I HAVE NO CLUE WHERE IT WILL STOP..AS WE ALL KNOW THE MARKETS ALWAYS PUSH THINGS UP AND DOWN WAY BEYOND WHERE "WE" THINK THEY'RE GOING TOO...SO STAY FAST AND LOOSE HERE..WE'LL ALL BE WATCHING THIS UNFOLD DURING TRIPLE WITCHING OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK...VOLITILE IN ITSELF...BE CAUTIOUS AND CAREFUL... OK HERE'S THE STOCKS THAT HAVE BEEN WONDERFUL TO TRADE EACH AND EVERY WEEK.. IDPH---I OWN THE DEC 35 PUTS FOR A QUICK TRADE...PLUNGED FROM 47 TO 32 THEN BOUNCED UP HERE...IT'S UNDERNEATH THE 20 EMA DCC...34.10 THE BTL...32.80 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 31 THIS STOCK RUNS DOWN TO 28 QUICKLY...NEEDS THE BTK TO BREAK DOWN TOO...FINGERS X'D....HAHAHAHAHAHAHA AMGN---LAST FRIDAYS STICK A DOJI ON LOW VOLUME..COULD ROCK LOWER HERE...51.25 THE BTL...49.75 THE SST... QCOM---BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) AT 38 AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD MOVE LOWER...38.40 THE BTL...36.80 THE SST...I'LL TAKE THAT. THERE IS SOME S AT THE BSL AT 36...ANY BREAK OF THAT IS VERY NEGATIVE... KLAC---LOOKS VERY WEAK HERE...STOCK HAS NOT MOVED UP 3 BOXES YET...THE DCC LOOKS EVEN WORSE...38.10 THE BTL..WAIT FOR IT...36.40 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 34 STAY SHORT.,. MERQ---THE BULLISH PERCENT ON THE GROUP HAS CHANGED TO BEAR ALERT..THAT'S SOFTWARE FOLKS...THIS STOCK LOOKS WEAK TO ME...31.10 THE BTL...29.55 THE SST...I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT... NVLS---ALREADY BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM LAST WEEK...COULD REALLY PLUNGE IF THE MARKET IS SELLING OFF...30 THE BTL...28.50 THE SST... QLGC---BULLISH SIGNAL REVERSAL ON P&F..MEANING IT BROKE A DT THEN BROKE A DB NEGATIVE...HAS A LOT OF AIR IN THE DCC CHART...37.65 THE BTL...36.25 THE SST... IBM---READY TO CRACK HERE...81 THE BTL...79 THE SST I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT...NEEDS TO TAKE OUT FRIDAYS LOWS AT 78.25ISH AND IF IT TAKES OUT 76 HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE<G>... ZRAN---LOOKS LIKE DEATH HERE..OOH NOT GOOD...VERY VERY WEAK CHART HERE...AND THIS STOCK WAS SO STRONG?...17 THE BTL...15.55 THE SST... MSFT---BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 53..VERY NEGATIVE DCC CHART TOO BOOT...53.25 THE BTL...51.75 THE SST... CYMI---SAME TYPE CHART HERE AS A LOT OF THEM..COULD CRASH AND BURN WITH THE WHOLE MARKET..SEMIS ARE STILL NOT DONE CORRECTING...33.55 THE BTL...32.20 THE SST..AND IF IT BREAKS 31 STAY SHORT TRAILING STOPS... EBAY---HOLDING UP WELL, MOVING SIDEWAYS FOR 8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS HERE...YHOO SAID SOME GOOD THINGS LAST WEEK TOO...68.20 THE BTL...66.80 THE SST..I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE... WMT---JUST BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM...RETAILERS STILL WEAK...51.40 THE BTL...49.80 THE SST... CTXS---THIS STOCK IS STILL OVERBOUGHT..DOUBLE TOPPED AT 13...12.50 THE BTL...11.60 THE SST..I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE... MO---IN A TRIANGLE ON P&F BUT UNDER THE BSL AND BRL...THIS STOCK USUALLY HOLDS WELL DURING MARKET DURESS...41.60 THE BTL...40.30 THE SST...AND A GOOD ONE TOO... RGLD---EVERYONE LIKES GOLD<G>...BROKE A SPREAD QUADRUPLE TOP AT 21..HOWEVER..DARK CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY?? TOPPED OUT?...22.90 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT 24...21.60 THE SST... HMY---JUST BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 16.50...17.25 THE BTL...16.25 THE SST... CEPH---BAD LOOKING DCC CHART...STILL MOVING LOWER HERE, WATCH THE BTK...AND BBH...50.20 THE BTL...48.50 THE SST... AMZN---HOLDING WELL HERE...DON'T KNOW FOR HOW LONG THO...22.50 THE BTL...21.60 THE SST... MCHP---SAME LOOKING CHART AS ALL THE SEMIS WEAKER...25.50 THE BTL...23.95 THE SST... OK COUPLE OF THINGS HERE..THOSE HOLDING LONGS AS BUY AND HOLDS LIKE KLIC.. HEDGE OR SELL IF WE BREAKDOWN..DO NOT WAIT..YOU CAN ALWAYS BUY IT BACK...FOR THAT MATTER YOU CAN BUY ANYTHING BACK ONCE THIS CARNAGE IS OVER WITH... NOW LOOK...WHAT I'VE WRITTEN ABOUT HERE TODAY IS FOR YOUR EYES ONLY...PLEASE DO NOT GIVE THIS TO ANY OTHER PEOPLE IN ANY OTHER ROOM...I WOULD REALLY APPRECIATE IT...AS FOR YOUR FRIENDS OR PARENTS OR NEIGHBORS THAT IS UP TO YOU...TRADERS THAT DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN OUR GROUP SHOULD NOT BE COMPENSATED WITH THIS REPORT...OR MY UPDATES...SINCE THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO PAY FOR IT, AND YOU ARE! AS FOR MY UPDATES...I'M TRYING TO DO THEM AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE...IT'S VERY TIME CONSUMING AND EXTRA HARD WORK..I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG I CAN KEEP IT GOING..BUT I'M STILL FEELING OK...FOR NOW...I MAY NOT DO THEM EVERY DAY...WE'LL SEE... ANYHOW..WE AWAIT THE OPEN...WHAT A WEEK THIS SHOULD BE HUH?...HANG TOUGH... WARMEST REGARDS JER the password for this week is...........................lookout..................one word lower case... Jerry Olson jerry.olson@verizon.net www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com --------------------------------------------------------------------------------