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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (15414)	12/19/2002 2:30:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

The market very rarely gives a second chance. I agree the bubble was one of massive proportions if you include some of these high flyers like sycamore who are dead and buried now. Adding up the mkt cap of all the dogs and all the trading profits that were made when stocks were going up 10-fold in 2 mos probably won't happen again. But as far as whole tech industries crashing and resuming their prior growth rates (and former stock prices) this has happened twice before in my life, once when I was in school and once when I was working. The first was the PC- apple gui boom that happened in about 83(?) with apple computer stock peaking at about 65. This is from memory and yahoo doesn't seem to have accurate charts from then so I could be a little off but this is the gist of it. Kaypro went public, all kinds of froth in computers/PCs then. Definitely something of a mania. Then in 84/85- a crash, apple stock falls to 9ish and sits there for a few years while tons of companies like kaypro go BK. The companies that did comdex all went out too. Atari BK and sale. Stuff like that going on. 4 years later apple back on top, the stock surpasses old highs. The junky compnies from the early 80s were all gone of course and apple gained share. The next period where this happened was the early 90s like I talked about with Sandeep. Same thing, the good companies like Oracle bounced back, recovered to prior highs and beyond (note this was PRE-BUBBLE), while the dogs like Pyramid technology and Powersoft and some of those were merged away. I really can't see how this period is any different. I am not expecting every flaky networker to get a mkt cap of 30 billion. They are all gone for the most part anyway. But for the remaining leaders to get back to say, stock prices at 50% of peak, why would that not happen? Especially given the consolidation we have seen in the industry? Of course it will happen it is just a question of when. Not soon, but maybe a year or two. Nobody knows when, in the prior recession everybody was saying stay away from tech too. Bob Brinker and friends that is. Amzn's multi-prior high was 100 it looks like. I bet it gets there again- I'm just sorry I didn't load the boat at 9 in January instead of listening to that lame Holly Becker permabear analyst. Lizzie