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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (56464)	12/19/2002 2:39:51 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

<<...Now, if you could just jump start this sorry market back into bulldom, it would be most appreciated!!!!!!...>> Murrey: I wish I could <G>... Too bad we aren't all betting the farm on the price of Gold shooting to the moon -- its had an impressive move lately. I think the market will continue to test our patience into 2003. regards, -s2

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (56464)	12/19/2002 3:04:05 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Gauge Points to 2003 Economic Revival Thursday December 19, 2:18 pm ET By Melissa Bland WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A key U.S. economic forecasting gauge issued on Thursday pointed to an accelerating recovery by next spring, a ray of hope as fresh government figures on unemployment claims confirmed a weak job market. The New York-based Conference Board said its index of leading indicators, designed to predict economic performance three to six months ahead, jumped 0.7 percent in November. That was its biggest gain since a 1.1 percent jump in December 2001, helped by higher stock prices and stronger consumer confidence. Revised figures showed that in October it barely edged up by 0.1 percent, rather than being flat. Analysts said the surprising surge in leading indicators was encouraging, especially in the face of new data from the Labor Department showing new weekly claims for jobless pay still at a lofty level. The department said first-time jobless claims during the week ended Dec. 14 totaled 433,000. While that was down 11,000 from the prior week, it handily topped Wall Street economists' forecasts for 408,000 claims and remained above the 400,000 level that economists say signals stalled job prospects. MODEST REVIVAL SEEN The data fit a general pattern of sluggish expansion currently but with reason to hope for a modest revival by the middle of next year. Last week, the closely watched Blue Chip economic forecasting survey said its members anticipated a gradual pickup in activity during 2003 to an annual growth rate around 3.7 percent by year-end. But the Blue Chip forecast was for anemic 1.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter this year. The Federal Reserve, which has cut U.S. interest rates to their lowest level in four decades, characterizes the current period as a "soft spot" that the economy must work through. The November leading indicators report was taken as a sign of creeping progress, at a minimum reinforcing hope that the economy will avoid slipping back into a recession like the mild one that lasted through the first nine months of 2001. "The rebound in the index is a clear sign that we are basically in no more than a soft patch. The economy is not headed anywhere down the path of anything resembling a double dip," Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors in Columbus, Ohio, said. "These numbers do in fact confirm ... that we are headed in the right direction, although we are moving at a snail's pace in that direction," Chan added. The data failed to cheer financial markets, still weighed down by concerns over possible war with Iraq. Stock prices were lower while bonds moved up, with investors seeking safety while they awaited news on the Bush administration's response to Iraq's 12,000-page arms disclosure. The Conference Board's chief economist, Ken Goldstein, suggested a few more positive factors were kicking in to give the expansion a late-year lift. FINANCE SECTOR BRIGHTENS "Only consumption consistently fueled the recovery throughout 2002. Meanwhile, the financial market slump seems to be lifting a little this autumn," Goldstein said, noting there were no signs that consumers were retrenching. "Recent consumer buying figures have somewhat allayed fears about a weak holiday season and consumer attitudes have also improved," he noted. A separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago offered a mixed signal -- it remained in negative territory for a fourth straight month during November but was not in as steep a decline as it was during October. The Chicago Fed said its national activity index, a three-month moving average of a basket of indicators, was adversely affected by a rise in the national unemployment rate to six percent last month. Job weakness may persist for some time, even if the economy rebounds modestly as predicted. The Labor Department report on jobless claims showed the four-week moving average of claims -- a more reliable indicator of job market conditions since it smooths out weekly volatility -- rose by 12,750 to 400,750 last week. "It's still a very soft labor market," Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss said. "I think flat is probably a better description than deteriorating, but it certainly is in line with what we've seen in the (monthly) employment report where payrolls have been flat for the whole year." On Wednesday, the president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, Alfred Broaddus, suggested companies may try to delay hiring as long as possible while they seek increased rates of productivity by boosting output with existing labor forces.