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To: pallmer who wrote (4185)	12/19/2002 4:39:52 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29602

CHARTING STOCKS: Stocks' Brief Transport Of Joy 19 Dec 14:11 By Stephen Cox, CMT A Dow Jones Newswires Column NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The stock market had a good shot at a considerable corrective rally early Thursday afternoon. But the potential rally was evidently blown away by the firming threat of war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now trading about 70.00 points lower on the day, around 8376.00. It's notable that the DJIA's early prospects for a rally were seconded by remarkably firmer trading of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Even now, DJTA is down by only 3.50 points, roughly, to about 2302. And that in itself is a good technical yarn. The so-called "Dow theory" of technical analysis, the brain child of Charles Dow, a founder of the company that brings you this column, says that an important move of the general market has to be confirmed by all the averages, Industrial, Transportation, and Utility. Non-confirmation means that stock move is suspect. In this case, the DJIA is clearly bearish in the long-term. The overall bearish character of the market suggests that the divergence between DJIA and the higher DJTA earlier in the session was a signal of an imminent stock market rally. In any case, a rally will mean little for the bulls unless DJIA moves decisively above 8580.82. That development would be an important upside breakout, but it's unlikely in my opinion. DJIA fell through 8386.25 bounce-point support as war talk heated up this afternoon. Now that the support has been taken out, the index is clearly showing technical weakness. For now the average is pointed into the lower 7800 handle by early next year. Finally, the transportation stocks have joined the blue-chip rout. It's intraday high, 2336.37, effectively represents a test of downtrend line resistance 2360.57 resistance. The averages are back in synch - on the downside. To read the Charting Markets technical newsletter goto djnewswires.com For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, page 4247; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "Charting Markets". -By Stephen Cox; 201-938-2064; stephen.cox@dowjones.com (Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires.) Data by Bridge\CRB (END) Dow Jones Newswires 12-19-02 1411ET

To: pallmer who wrote (4185)	12/19/2002 7:39:42 PM
From: pallmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29602

-- DJ Pimco's Gross: '03 Bond Returns Won't Be As High As '02 -- By Michelle Rama Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The "big lesson" investors learned in 2002 is that bonds can be just as volatile as stocks, said Bill Gross, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. "It's best to be careful when you're selecting credits, corporates, emerging markets - it's not necessarily the safe haven that investors always assume," Gross told CNBC Thursday. The year ahead should bring a better investment climate from an economic standpoint, Gross predicts. He expects the economy to grow about 2% to 3%, with a slight uptick in inflation. In bonds, he doesn't see the 9% or 10% returns that Pimco's Total Return Fund - which Gross manages - gleaned this year, but said "certainly bonds should always have a place in an investor's portfolio..." "Ultimately," he said of equities, "a new bull market in stocks depends on yield, and I think stocks need to yield 3.5% or so, which is Dow 5000. That may be a few years out, but in the meantime the market will go whichever way" investors want it to go. The 2% to 3% economic growth backdrop, he noted, will be a negative for high-quality bonds such as Treasurys and a positive for lower-quality corporate and emerging market bonds. He suggests bond investors move out a little further on the limb and take slightly greater risks, but "not a lot." Taking on a bit more risk, he noted, "is what (Federal Reserve Chairman) Alan Greenspan wants us to do." "We're not suggesting we're going to be in high yield bonds to a significant extent, nor even in corporate bonds," Gross said, "but when Treasurys are yielding three and 4% and in some cases 2%, when talking about short-term Treasurys, you need higher yields to offset the potential for negative prices, at least in the Treasury arena, so we're moving out on the risk spectrum and looking at corporate bonds, certainly emerging market bonds. Mexico, for instance, yields 8%." He tells individual investors it's a relatively safe environment in which to diversify by moving out of money market and Treasury-oriented mutual funds and into corporate bond funds, "and a twinge of emerging market funds." "I'm not suggesting taking a lot of risk," he said, "but gradually moving out of lower yielding instruments," he said. -By Michelle Rama, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4046; michelle.rama@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires 12-19-02 1347ET- - 01 47 PM EST 12-19-02 19-Dec-2002 18:47:00 GMT Source DJ - Dow Jones