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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dr_elis who wrote (7822)	12/19/2002 4:25:18 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95531

<It almost appears as if innovation is no longer a driving force> It isn't. That is the problem. Innovation is being hindered, especially technology and internet related, by 1.)the Baby Bells failure to upgrade to Broadband fast enough. and 2.) Lack of capital, capital to innovate being yanked, or capital being deployed to destruct formative companies instead of to construct them.

To: dr_elis who wrote (7822)	12/19/2002 5:17:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

Where do you think is the growth supposed to come from? Ongoing, we have a tremendous DSL employment, DVD is exploding, digital cameras are also burning hot, and still, the semi industry has a very hard time. It almost appears as if innovation is no longer a driving force.... I have friends in Applied's AKT division. This division apparently makes machines for making flat panel devices. Management expects that division alone to generate 1 billion in sales eventually. I think it is at less than 100mm now (not too sure though- maybe some can help me out). I am sure about the one billion target though. Some of the issues wrt growth currently are the size of these machines, they are too large to house. So technological advances are required to deliver the numbers, it sounds like. Lizzie

To: dr_elis who wrote (7822)	12/19/2002 10:38:05 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

RE: "Where do you think is the growth supposed to come from?...the semi industry has a very hard time. It almost appears as if innovation is no longer a driving force..." The "growth" comes from advanced computing and network communications. The fundamental driver is a move from wireline voice, and character and graphic data, to wireless, real time, full motion audio/video. The "application" is saving the earth and its resources through the everywhere, anytime use of "virtual" reality. The "immediate applications" are the creation of wireless, broadband access everywhere, wireline broadband access from homes and buildings, higher speed broadband networks and access, network delivery systems for entertainment, home computing/communication/entertainment systems with a wireless network of audio and audio/ video "players and "communication devices." How does this compare to visicalc as a "killer app"?<G> Innovation is definitely a driving force. It has a difficult job to do. The technology industry was taken over by racketeers and the result was tremendous distortion and dislocation. We have stability, R & D investment, and growth in the leading edge. It just takes time and the overall picture still is obscuring the innovative progress.