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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (26352)	12/19/2002 8:01:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello energyplay, <<it looks like you and about 2000 of your closest friends moved the Swiss franc ... >> I started earlier:0) Message 16128687 July 25th, 2001 Hi DAK, From your post, I trekked to Patron's post ... Message 16125692 ... and saw the big boys' comments concerning the dollar. While they do speak with a more powerful voice, they are only making the same points that the posters on SI have collectively made. Now, only decision is required from W. OK, today I converted a bit more cash to Swiss Francs, on top of the tranche I mentioned earlier ... Message 16069324 I feel coerced, insecure, and somewhat helpless. I feel Uncle Greensplunk is reaching into my wallet and helping himself to what I would like to keep for my family. I am unable to escape Greensplunk's grasp by buying anything (real estate, bonds, stocks), and thus short the USD, because of my conviction that these, regardless of global location, will all go down. I do not want to get still more physical gold and platinum, because I think I got enough for the moment. I do not want to buy more gold shares, because I already have some, and have outstanding short straddle positions in puts (and short calls). I have been playing games with gold shares and options for more than 2 years now, and am happy that I have been collecting these shares slowly. So, the only thing left to do is to also shuffle slowly into beaten down currencies. I do not like currencies, because I do not know how to gauge their fundamentals; they move fast; and they take a long time to recover, if they do; and because my base unit of account is in USD, given that it has aircraft carrier protection, and HKD is hard-pegged to it. When a typhoon is about to strike HK, most boats go to typhoon shelters. But, sometimes, when the wind gets really bad, the crowded typhoon shelters are sites of considerable damage, as closely berthed boats smash against each other. Two options: submerge to bottom of ocean, or climb over across the mountain, and wait out the storm. I do not know that there are particular shelters for the typhoon we all are about to experience. I suspect gold is one possible answer. My secret concern is: if the FED wanted to, how long can they fight off the gold bugs? Whatever the answer, I doubt the blue chip stocks are even amongst the list of options. And, so, on ... <<are there calls on Typhoons??>> ... I think "not clear", but when in doubt, trust the force of tradition, trust "gold". Nikkei can easily reach a 20-year low from its current 16-year low, putting it on par with gold. I see no particular reason why the US stock indices cannot eventually hit a multi-decade low. Then what? and in getting there, will gold go lower still from its current level? Chugs, Jay