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To: ajtj99 who wrote (62181)	12/20/2002 12:37:14 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

AJ -- interesting chart. Question for you. Aren't the slow stochastics getting to a point where they have turned back down (either right here or within a week or two)? And yet the full stochastics clearly have room to run. Seems like conflicting info. Also, I agree we've seen a down-up-down since the 56 top (number 2), but I don't know if it's a real ABC in Elliot. I have two concerns, the biggest being that it's impossible to count the internal structure of those ABC waves (as in the C appears to be straight down!). Also, I wonder what the count was before that spike high (or the one before it), cuz we might be building a more complex correction (heck, we might now be building a wave 4 on a 5 wave DECLINE from that top). Anyway, interesting stuff, and nicely called on this down move having more oomph than many expected.... the freep

To: ajtj99 who wrote (62181)	12/20/2002 12:40:33 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

yeah, that's what i've readtoo...but i don't buy it...or sell it as the case may be VIX is ALWAYS suspect during O/E///not to mention triple witch. Good luck w/ general consenus equity pc closed at .80 today... like i said before, i think anyone chasing the downside has increased odds of getting their collective asses handed to them. my credit card has expired on my subscription to the Bobanov (Bobby Beara) Market Report, so I can't comment further. I'll renew tomorrow... late

To: ajtj99 who wrote (62181)	12/20/2002 9:49:06 AM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

ajtj, that's a nice argument But I think the VIX levels are more important than the wave patterns for discerning future direction. IMO, the VIX hasn't gotten low enough for a major move back up to 50; a VIX reading in the 18-22 range would make me more comfortable about having a more sustained move up. The last time it appears that we were in a comparable situation VIX-wise was in the fall of 2000 when we had a low of 25.12 that reached a spike high of 37.54 in late December that year. Notwithstanding what any potential wave scenarios may suggest, I think the VIX will be chopping around in the next few weeks rather than showing a clearer direction one way or the other, and if I'm going to take a stab at it I say it moves back into the 20s rather that higher in the next few weeks.