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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26400)	12/20/2002 8:08:41 AM
From: Joe Copia	Respond to of 74559

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: 8:30 AM ET. Final Third-Quarter Corporate Profits (revised +2.1%) 8:30 AM ET. Final Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (seen +4%, revised +4%) The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS The US stock indexes were slightly higher overnight. The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's losses. March has broken out below the 38% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 1028.87 and is poised to test November's low crossing at 984.50, which coincides with the 50% retracement level later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 3.00 points at 1016.50 as of 6:44 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning. The March S&P 500 index was also higher overnight due to technical short covering as it consolidates some of its losses of the past three days while consolidating just above the 38% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 885. Closes below Thursday's low at 878.80 would confirm a breakout below the 38% retracement level of this fall's rally which would open the door for a test of November's low crossing at 872 later this winter. Overnight strength sets the stage for a firmer tone during the day session. The March S&P was up 5.20 points at 890 as of 6:47 AM ET. The Nikkei 225 Stock market closed lower on Friday leaving Thursday's upside reversal unconfirmed. The Nikkei continues to hover above November's low crossing at .8247. Closes below October's low crossing at 8197 would confirm a downside breakout below this fall's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but very oversold hinting that a low might be near. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 8584 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The Nikkei closed down 56 points at 8332. More at quotes.ino.com INTEREST RATES March T-bonds were modestly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. March is consolidating just below the 75% retracement level of November's decline crossing at 111-00. If this resistance level is cleared, November's high crossing at 112-11 is the next upside target later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible into the end of the year. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins trading. More at quotes.ino.com ENERGY MARKETS The energy markets were lower overnight due to light profit taking as statements from the U.N. and diplomats indicate that Iraq still has room to maneuver despite omissions in its weapons declaration. February crude oil was modestly lower overnight following Thursday's lower close, which left Wednesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. February crude oil continues to consolidate below weekly resistance crossing at 31.39, its next target. The rising ADX signals that additional short-term gains are possible. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. February heating oil was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's gains following Thursday's test of weekly fib resistance crossing at 87.43. If this resistance level is cleared, the January 2001 high on the weekly chart crossing at 89.65 is the next target later this winter. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. Support begins with October's high crossing at 81.80. February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's gains following Thursday's mid- range close. Nevertheless, the door remains open for February to test weekly resistance crossing at 90.87 later this month. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. Initial support begins with Wednesday's low crossing at 83.85. February Henry Hub natural gas was slightly lower overnight due to spillover selling following Thursday's downside reversal. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 4.935 would greatly increase the odds that a double top with last week's high was posted on Thursday. Until then, the door remains open for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 5.71 in the near future. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought while the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is still possible. More at quotes.ino.com CURRENCY FUTURES \| REAL TIME FOREX The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates below broken weekly support crossing at 104.12. Multiple closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the 1998-2001 rally crossing at 102.41 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but oversold while the daily ADX is rising hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high at 104.78 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The March Euro is working on an inside day but was lower overnight as it consolidates below weekly resistance crossing at 102.745. Multiple closes above this resistance level could lead to a test of the January 2000 high on the weekly chart, which crosses at 104.64 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates just above weekly resistance crossing at 1.5928. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm this week's breakout. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought while the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this month's rally. However, March remains poised to test weekly resistance crossing at .7080 in the near future. Momentum indicators are bullish and the ADX is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. The March Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates above November's high crossing at .6424 and below weekly resistance crossing at .6452. Closes below Monday's low crossing at .6368 would greatly increase the odds that a double top with November's high has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and turning neutral warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. Overnight action sets the stage for a softer tone during the day session. The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at .8320. Closes above Tuesday's high at .8351 would renew this month's rebound, which could lead to a test of November's high crossing at .8421 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. I am looking for a steady to softer tone during the day session. More at quotes.ino.com PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS February gold was lower overnight due to profit taking triggered by strength in the U.S. Dollar and weakness in the energy complex. Thursday's high spiked above the 62% retracement level of the 1996- 1999 decline on the weekly February chart crossing at 355.50. Closes above this resistance level could lead to an eventual test of the May 1997 high on the weekly February gold chart, which crosses at 363.60 later this winter. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. Closes below broken weekly resistance crossing at 339 would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a weaker tone during the day session. March silver was lower overnight due to profit taking triggered by spillover weakness from gold. March is trading just below trading range resistance crossing at 4.75. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 4.805 or below Tuesday's low at 4.61 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The ADX bullish and rising hinting that sideways to higher prices is possible into the end of the year. Overnight weakness sets a softer tone for the day session. March copper was slightly lower overnight and is challenging the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 72.02, which coincides with November's, low at 71.90. If these support levels were broken, the door would be open for a possible test of the 62% retracement level crossing at 70.78 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady tone during the day session. More at quotes.ino.com FOOD & FIBER March coffee closed lower on Thursday and below the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 61.66 ending a three-day corrective bounce off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. However, closes above last week's gap crossing at 65.50 are needed before a bottom can be confirmed. If the decline resumes, the 75% retracement level crossing at 58.28 is a possible target later this month. March cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 21.12. If this resistance level is cleared, gap resistance crossing at 2200 is a possible target later this winter. Closes below last Monday's gap at 1961 would all but confirm that the rebound off November's low has come to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned neutral hinting that a top might be in or near. March sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday thereby negating Wednesday's decline. Today's new high close for the week keeps the corrective rebound off last week's low alive. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. If this month's rebound continues November's high at 777 and then December's high at 789 are possible targets. Closes below last week's low crossing at 715 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of the year. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength. March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday despite a strong weekly export sales report. Net sales were 211,900 running bales, which were 7% under the 4- week average. Nevertheless, stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible into the last half of December. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 51.80 is a potential target later this winter. More at quotes.ino.com GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX March corn was fractionally higher overnight following Thursday's mid- range close. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 2.41 3/4 or below Tuesday's low at 2.37 1/2 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Ongoing concerns about export demand along with stiff competition from China will continue to limit near-term upside potential in the market. I would not be surprised to see March corn drift sideways in a narrow trading range into the January supply-demand report. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of December. Early calls are for March corn to open steady to a 1/2 cent higher this morning. March wheat was lower overnight following Thursday's low-range close. This week's export sales report was nearly double the previous week's level however, overall export demand remains sluggish. With little fresh supportive news for the market to chew on, March wheat appears vulnerable to additional weakness into the end of the year. Overnight weakness saw March wheat trade below the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.49 1/2. Closes below this support level would open the door for a test of the July 31 gap crossing at 3.42 1/2 later this winter. Early calls are for December wheat to open 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. SOYBEAN COMPLEX January soybeans were higher overnight as they extend this week's short covering rebound following Wednesday's spiked below November's low. Spillover support from this week's strong export sales report along with a slightly bullish shift in South America's weather provided overnight support to the market. Closes above last week's high at 5.77 or below this week's low crossing at 5.52 1/2 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of the year. Pre- opening calls are for January soybeans to open 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. January soybean meal was steady overnight in subdued trading following Thursday's mid-range close. January continues to consolidate above November's low crossing at 162.50. Closes below this support level and then last week's low crossing at 161.30 would renew this fall's decline and could lead to a test of July's low crossing at 159 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Early calls are for January soybean meal to open steady this morning. More at quotes.ino.com LIVESTOCK and MEATS February hogs posted a key reversal up on Thursday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. Spillover support from sharply higher bellies also underpinned today's rally. Early weakness led to a spike below this fall's uptrend line crossing near 50.75. Closes below this uptrend line and last week's low crossing at 50.35 are needed to confirm a trend change while opening the door for a test of the 38% retracement level of the June-December rally crossing at 48.80 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are still bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high at 53.30 would set the stage for a possible year-end rally. February cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday due to winter weather concerns and pre-report positioning ahead of Friday's monthly cattle-on-feed report. February continues to consolidate below weekly resistance crossing at 79.25. If this resistance level is cleared, December's high at 79.65 and then weekly resistance crossing at 81.07 are potential targets later this winter. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 77.10 would confirm an end to the current short covering bounce while opening the door for sideways to lower prices into the end of the year. Stochastics and the RSI bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. More at quotes.ino.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26400)	12/20/2002 8:50:05 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, <<Crisis = Partner, Volatility = Friend, Lonely Path = Right Way, Survive = Fight Another Day>> I believe successful investment is mostly dependent on studied allocation choice and deliberated entry of positions, perfected with a dash of courage and embellished with a dollop of luck. Avoiding large and possibly fatal mistakes is a must. Once the allocation decision is made, and the basic positions entered into, at the margin, the fun of the game, and thus the return, can be enhanced with the old in/out trading, furious if necessary, based on technicals, or gut feelings. Trading is an art, having almost nothing to do with fundamental analysis, deliberation, or any other cerebral function. So, go forth, fear not, be in tune with the Force, leverage its strength, as in Judo, strike, but strike hard, as in Karate. Then, as in thieves in the night, take the money and run, fast, silent, into the shadows, away from the crowds. Stop, turn around, stay low to the ground, view the chaos left behind, take aim, through the cross-haired scope ... but oh, who do you see? Maurice, sitting in his sandbox, waiting, playing a game he thinks is not zero sum:0) Chugs, Jay

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26400)	12/20/2002 10:20:12 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Dated Dec 19 << I moved a wallop of HKD into paper gold,>> Dated Dec 20 << I just sold my gold position down, from 8.73% of assets to 6.78% of assets level (2/3 of my paper gold position)>> Now Jay I'm too far from home to figure out if ya made or lost on this transaction so you're gonna hafta put some numbers on this or it don't make any sense to me. No need to go into the minutiae like annualized percentage gains an the like ..... 8~)