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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (23973)	12/20/2002 3:29:58 PM
From: Threshold	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Didn't the Romans get fat and greedy before they fell. Not to mention trying to conquer the world. Bush and Caesar.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (23973)	12/20/2002 5:10:59 PM
From: jrhana	Respond to of 36161

<Now, it's the US's turn to be the crumbling empire> You could have said the same in 1942 or 1980. Don't forget we have a track record of rising to the occasion and overcoming adversity. After my all my old buddy Al (I seem to to be the only human left who actually admires him) has just revealed the key. We are going to inflate are way out of all this mess and then go to a Gold Standard. Then will start a new era of US prosperity and power (as well as a hell of a great entry point for the next great general equity bull). All competition (ie China) will serve just to make us work harder and excel. In fact a thriving China will be in our own best interests-Billions of potential customers.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (23973)	12/20/2002 5:51:47 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 36161

The entire international monetary system will be restructured within a few years IMHO. The current system that makes the rest of the world so dependent on US consumers and enables the US to live WAY beyond its means is not long for this world. Especially with so many foreigners now hating the US and deeply resenting the dollar standard.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (23973)	12/20/2002 6:23:42 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

CD good comments re: Sinclair/Watershed Events 1. I don't think this recent run in the HUI & the Price of Gold is based on ANY new watershed event, or fundamental paradigm/belief shifts on Wall St towards Gold. 2. For Gold to go "onward & upward" and most importantly, for it to stay there - true new "Watershed Event" territory is going to have to be encountered, along with another new wave of Institutional "True Believers" being converted to the positive LONGTERM Fundamentals of Gold. And imo, that hasn't happened here. All we have seen in my opinion; is prudent and further "hedging" (the original Gulf War Deja Vu all over again) in Gold & Energy. It was expected, or at least it should have been expected... that's why buying strongly into the October pullbacks for Gold and against the grain of that broad market Rally was a solid high reward/low-moderate risk trade... because that Rally told us that the broad market was still not solidly convinced on the reality that we were going to War with Iraq. As we continue to mobilize massive amounts of troops and with Iraq's incredulous WMD disclosure to the UN...it's become more and more apparent that we are going to War...not that there should have EVER been much doubt imho. vis a vie the USD: Papaya King (glad to see you here by the way) - to trade the "Bulls" you need to think like them and/or understand clearly what they are thinking and identify when they are both clearly wrong, occassionally right (vbg) and also, when they are beginning to change their thinking and most importantly; when they begin to move their money in the direction of their change in thought... I believe that they are thinking that the USD @ 103 is not new territory to the degree necessary to create a "watershed/catalyst" event, triggering longterm shifts in Institutional thinking and money flows and thus new SUSTAINABLE highs in Gold. New temporary "Tradeable" highs ? - yes imho. New "Sustained" highs ? - no, not yet imho and that's why this was a profit taking/trading event here on this latest run in Gold vs. a no looking back breakout to significant new highs. I think this is their (The Bulls) take on the USD here: "We've been here & done that already"... they're concerned, maybe even a little worried, but nothing more than that. ie: been there & done that; the USD hit 103 in July of this year & 108ish in Dec '00/Jan '01. - the Dollar is "bottoming" in the mind of the Bulls... they are "concerned" here @ 103ish and they "worry" about a breach of 100, but don't "FEAR" a potential USD 80 "PANIC" level in the Dollar - yet. When they see USD 100 strongly breached and then the writing on the Wall of a USD sub 95/90 - then and only then... we'll see Gold move to significant new highs AND stay there and begin to take some larger stairsteps onward & upward. The breach of 100, then 95 will finally bring their thinking to where "we" need it to be for a sustained and significant new Gold Rally. The belief of a potential USD 80 level is FEAR/PANIC territory.... a double bottom @ 103 is a concern that isn't even in worry stage of yet for most bulls...and they totally discount anything in the 80 area at this time. Frank Cashin whom I respect; was just on CNBC and called a sustained longterm play on Gold here - quote/unquote: "...still a Rocket (Long) Shot" They still don't believe...the Rubinite King AllMighty Dollar is still dancing like visions of sugar plums in their head... It's still when, not if; for significant new highs for Gold... but, just like the prior OSX cycle; there's enough volatility in the interim that you have to take the nice 30-50% moves in individual stock trades whenEVER they're presented to you in short term windows... The Bulls are merely "hedging a bit more into Gold" on concern turning into worry here and when worry escalates into the Fear of Panic, then and only then - we'll see paradigm shifts in thinking and we'll then see the serious rotation of longerterm money into Gold. Concern - is USD 103. Worry - would be a breach of 100 thru 95ish. Fear of Panic - will occur when the potential of USD 80ish appears on the horizon with a breach of USD 95 (and it will in due time imho). 103 brought more hedging... and a breach of USD 100 would bring more; but not shifts in paradigm thinking and money flows or new significant highs for Gold. Untill we see USD 95ish breached to the downside... I'm a TRADER and a Profit Taker. Once USD 90ish is breached.... I would tend to hold thru most range trading and raise an ever-higher core portfolio % position We've merely seen additional prudent, temporary hedging on what's occuring in Argentina and on the potential of Saddam doing the unthinkable - vis a vie a "scortched earth" response to his inevitable expulsion from power. A breach of DOW 7,000 - will bring another wave of "true believers". A breach of USD 95-90 will as well. Any dirty-nuke, or significant bio incident used within the US, or against a major US ally will as well. But, given that quite possibly by late January; we could be in Iraq and by the 1st of March; Saddam could be out of power, or in exile, or in hiding like Bin Laden... without USD 95 being taken out, or DOW 7,000... and with God willing; sans any major bio, or nuclear event... Gold is still in a tradeable/profit taking range...and anytime we get any 30-50% short term moves in individual stocks handed to us... I think you gotta ring that Ca$h Register and that's what I did. Remember; in late Dec 1999/early Jan 2000 - we were at USD bouncing a little over & a little under 100ish... and the HUI was in the low 70's, the XAU in the high 60's and NEM as a benchmark, was trading in the $19's to low $20's... so USD 103ish here does NOT have the Bulls "fearing" a whole helluva lot yet imho...they've been at USD 100 and Gold didn't convert them there the last time. They've got all that rotational Cash (ABILITY) that just came out of the Bond Market Top and as we just saw only a few weeks ago; they still have the (WILLINGNESS)to call yet another bottom and claim the death of the Bear off of nearly every new low. We're going to convert new believers slowly, but surely all the way down from USD 100, to 95, to 90, to 85, to 80... and all the way down from DOW 8500, to 7500, thru the breach of 7,000 to what I believe will ultimately be DOW 5,000 & $500+ POG.