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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4549)	12/20/2002 4:11:11 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

FWIW, all predictions should be viewed skeptically at this point, especially since we are at the trough of probably the worst downturn ever. Hence, pessimistic views of growth at this point are probably too pessimistic. JMO Yep, in fact this is an understatement imo. It feels like 90/91 to me now except worse. Meaning a great time to invest, not trade.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4549)	12/23/2002 4:04:14 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 25522

Brian, Similar prediction, made years ago, said that autos would be 6-8% of GDP of US economy in the 70's. It never got that high, and has dropped off to less than 3% over time. I think that 2% of global GNP may be enough, given how cheaply we can make circuits now. Keep in mind that as long as Moore's Law functions at any power, the cost of specific circuits are effectively halved in a relatively short time. You need only look at the price of 128MBit DRAM in the last two years to see what I mean. The auto industry put out a white paper about 3 years ago; I forget the reference. Focus was cost and quantity of Si-related circuits in autos. The fraction of cost going into chips in a car began to go down in about 1999; at that time the value of circuitry was about that of the raw steel in a vehicle. But steel isn't subject to price reductions driven by Moore's Law; circuits are. The number of circuits in a car is doubling about every 4 years or so; that means the fraction of cost due to circuits in a car will trend downward, even as cars become more sophisticated electronically! These are very crude estimations, of course. But unless we begin to load electronics into everything at a rate which doubles each year, we'll never catch back up to Moore's Law. Until it no longer applies, that is... Mitch