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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (4560)	12/20/2002 10:06:05 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "I am perplexed as to why you are extrapolating future growth from the revenue peak..." I was trying to figure out how the 8-10% growth might have replaced the 15%. In 2001, Morgan predicted $20B in 2005. At that time, I "adjusted" for the bubble and moved the $20B to 2007-8. I thought it was interesting that 10% from the previous peak agrees with $20B in 2007-8. I agree that I would not extrapolate from a bubble peak. I am not sure what the "pundits" would do, so I presented one conjecture. In your presentation of chip and equip sales data, you make a strong argument for smoothed (possibly heuristically) data that starts earlier than 1993. I don't expect AMAT to get to $20B from lithography or from KLAC's market share. I expect market share gains in current markets and a continuous move into new markets. The one stop shop with complete front end process tools and expertise is still the model.