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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (7845)	12/20/2002 8:25:45 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

Thanks Don, interesting indeed. Business Week has an article with results of a survey of small investors. They have not been so bearish in 7 years. Contrast that with the usual surveys of newsletter writers [they're bullish]. small investors poll businessweek.com@@FxRs@YcQNAJ6tAcA/magazine/content/02_52/b3814619.htm excerpt It's no surprise that the bear market has taken its toll, but the sheer intensity of investors' gloominess is remarkable. In the poll, conducted Dec. 6-9, more people than at any time in the last seven years predicted ultra-low long-run returns from stocks, more said a stock crash was "very likely," and more said real estate was likely to be a better investment than stocks. There were similar results for some newer questions: Fewer people say they've bought shares lately, fewer plan to buy any soon, and fewer are confident of their ability to beat the market. To some observers, the dark mood of small investors is evidence that there's no foundation for a rally to build on. But contrarians argue just the opposite. They say that investors have probably already acted on their pessimism by dumping shares, so the market has nowhere to go but up. If they're right, it could be a good time to buy. newsletter writers sentiment schaeffersresearch.com Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (7845)	3/20/2003 10:44:42 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

From Briefing.com: 6:02PM Micron reports Q2 results (MU) 8.00 -0.15: -- Update -- Co reports a Q2 loss of $0.64 a share excluding items; sales rose 21.5% to $785 mln -- Multex consensus estimates for the qtr were -$0.48 and $679.7 mln. "Our .13 micron products are realizing noticeable manufacturing improvements which will be reflected in reduced costs over the next two quarters..." Including items, co posted a loss of $619 mln or $1.02 a share for the qtr. 4:23PM Solectron matches estimates; updates guidance (SLR) 3.41 -0.07: Reports Q2 (Feb) loss of $0.01 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of ($0.01); revenues fell 5.3% year/year to $2.82 bln vs the $2.93 bln consensus; Q3 guidance is for sales of $2.6 to $2.9 billion, and for pro forma net loss of $0.01- $0.04 per share -- Multex consensus estimates are for earnings of $0.01 per share and revs of $3.08 bln respectively. 4:07PM Palm misses by $0.02 (PALM) 10.85 +0.15: Reports Q3 (Feb) loss of $0.91 per share, $0.02 worse than the Multex consensus of ($0.89); revenues fell 28.6% year/year to $209.0 mln vs the $207.4 mln consensus. 2:05PM Ultratech Stepper -- Volume Standout (UTEK) 11.59 +0.66: Semiconductor equipment maker's shares have rallied 6% today. Move comes on extremely heavy volume of 2.6 mln, or 10x the turnover UTEK experiences on a normal day. Rally carries stock through its 200-day moving avg. Intraday, issue faces resistance at the $12 level. 1:57PM Merrill sees Cisco's acquisition of Linksys as a net negative (CSCO) 14.12 -0.10: -- Update -- Merrill Lynch views CSCO's acquisition of Linksys as a net negative, citing: 1) margin pressure in the small office/home office mkt, 2) CSCO's lackluster track record in the consumer mkt, 3) no apparent synergies between CSCO's and Linksys' distribution channels, and 4) their belief that entering this mkt signals further weakness in CSCO's core biz. Maintains Neutral rating. 10:36AM SanDisk seen benefiting from cell phone market (SNDK) 20.52 +0.43: W.R. Hambrecht believes SNDK should benefit from NAND flash penetrating cell phone market in the form of embedded memory or memory cards. 9:56AM Novellus takes out 200 day average (NVLS) 29.56 +0.66: -- Update -- -- Technical -- Slipped in opening trade but held at a short term support (28.80/28.70) and subsequently edged beyond its 200 day sma. Currently is attempting to stabilize above its 50 day sma (29.51). Next resistance of interest is between 30 and 30.38 (38% retrace and upper end of late Feb range). 1:11PM Chart Watch -- (AMD) (OPENX): We reviewed Advanced Micro (AMD) on the 10th, comparing it on a relative basis to Intel and highlighting that it was nearing resistance at its Feb/early March highs. The short term outperformance has continued with AMD able to break through the resistance area. The chart below provides an update of the relative performance and shows the extent of the breakout thus far (more than 23%). The substantial move over a short term time span is certainly appreciated but traders should never become mesmerized by a solid percentage gain. Shorter term traders will often look to scale out of a portion of their position and bump up the stop on the remainder. Longer term traders now have a cushion to work with but common sense also suggests moving up stops to avoid turning a winning trade into break even situation or worse. From a technical perspective AMD is nearing what looks to be a solid resistance area which also suggests that it may be time for a strategic position adjustment. The 200 day sma (black line) is at 7.06 with the 50% retrace of the Dec/Feb slump and chart congestion coming into play in the 7.19/7.22 area. Next resistances if the advance continues from an intermediate term perspective are at 7.45/7.50 and 7.75/7.79 (62% retrace, Jan high). Obviously momentum is favorable and the possibility of a strong war related extension clearly exists but locking in some profits, bumping up stops and potentially looking for reentry positions if the trend continues (or resumes after a pause) is the more prudent way to manage your position. -- Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com AMAT, KLAC, NVLS upgraded at SG Cowen SG Cowen upgrades AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS to Outperform from Mkt Perform for the following reasons: 1) believes we're in the midst of a gradual cyclical recovery, and there is continued evidence that IT spending and semis are gradually improving; 2) expects improvement in 2H03 driven by incremental 300mm spending by IDMs and a resumption of orders from TSMC; 3) capacity models suggest a strong 2004 recovery; 4) concerns over declining memory orders/pushouts appear priced in; and 5) valuations attractive for longer term investors 7:05AM Sanmina-SCI cut to Neutral at UBS on valuation; target $4.80 (SANM) 4.72: 6:51AM Plexus Corp guides cuts Q2 guidance (PLXS) 9.60: Contract manufacturer warns of a Q2 loss in the $0.10-$0.12 range vs previous guidance of a $0.02-$0.05 loss (Multex consensus -$0.04). PLXS puts revs at approx $190 mln (consensus $192.2 mln). "Reflecting on-going softness across all of our end-markets, we expect revenue to come in at the low end of guidance for the quarter." In the tech sector, Jabil Circuit (JBL 18.00 +0.73) matched both the Multex EPS and revenue estimates of $0.16 and $1.15 bln, respectively, in its Q2 (Feb) report. The provider of electronic manufacturing services (EMS) expects to post another set of in line results in Q3 (May), with revenues increasing 5-8% sequentially to $1.20-1.24 bln and EPS rising to $0.17-0.19, as compared to consensus estimates of $0.18 and $1.21 bln. Competitors of JBL include the likes of CLS, FLEX, SANM, and SLR. Entegris (ENTG) 11.90 +1.20: Reported Q2 net of $0.01 a share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus. Sales rose 6.7% to $54.13 mln (consensus $54.2 mln). Co expects Q3 sales to rise 10-15% sequentially, implying a top-line of $59.54-$62.25 mln (consensus $59.7 mln). Co sees a few weeks of slowed product delivery at it transitions to the manufacturing of the new WRC products. finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+CSCO+ENTG+FLEX+INTC+JBL+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+PALM+PLXS+SANM+SLR+SNDK+TER+TXN+UTEK+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t MU was up sharply in after hours trading. RtS