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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (7850)	12/21/2002 10:55:48 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95526

Sam, thank you. the P/C ratios of different sectors are new to me. Now if we only knew if they are contrarian signals. If they are, the consumer sector is in trouble. Gottfried

To: Sam Citron who wrote (7850)	12/21/2002 5:01:19 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95526

Excellent post Sam. Gottfried, it would seem likely to me that we can expect sector bottoms to be seen when then is excessive pessimism. This would show up when the put to call ratio is excessive with 0.70 being an extreme rating. In other words puts to call ratio of 70/100, 0.70 or above, for a bottom. Now looking at tops we should see a ratio of 40/100, or 0.40 or below, signaling far fewer puts. In this article the semiconductor P/C is at 0.44 very close to signaling a top. In my opinion that is probably because the top was in earlier this month. schaeffersresearch.com As Gottfried pointed out the Consumer Sector may be ready for a fall with a P/C over 0.70 at 0.73. Here are some other indicators that we might want to consider in the future for stock market timing: biz.yahoo.com The Bulls to Bears Advisor Ratio is far too bullish now to reflect anything close to a bottom. It is not however at an absolute extreme. Finally market extremes in P/E Ratios and yields have always occurred at previous long term market tops and bottoms. schaeffersresearch.com This week’s loudest indicator may be this sentiment poll from Investors Intelligence. The latest figures show 24.2 percent bears, the lowest number since January. Previous lows in this ratio have been around 23 to 24 and foreshadowed significant declines. This includes the readings from January that were concurrent with the last market top. The caveat this time is that during the other lows in the number of bears, the bullish percentage was between 55 and 60. The current reading of 50.5 percent bulls is a bit lower than past extremes. This may not offer much relief as studies have shown the percentage of bears to be more predictive than its counterpart. This can have a powerfully negative influence on the market for weeks or months. I know we are in a period of time where the FED has been doing all it can to stimulate the economy. Interest rates are very low but past market bottom have had Market P/E Ratio Breadth Contrary Price-earnings ratios as low as 5. We are closer to the upper extreme of a P/E of 25 now than the lower P/E ratio of 5 at previous market bottoms: finance.yahoo.com@^dji&d=t Also I recommend everyone check out the DJIA Dividend Yields on that list and try to imagine at what level we would see the DJIA before we had a yield of 18% which has been seen at previous market bottoms not that I expect it will be seen at the bottom of this bear market. DJIA yield gets as low as 3% at market tops and as high as 18% at bottoms. Technology stocks are still being afforded tremendous multiples in P/E Ratios at a time when semiconductor sector sales growth is being questioned by many including Andy Grove and <gg> yours truly. RtS