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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (3368)	12/21/2002 3:34:03 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 13403

I think the increase in commodity prices (like the rebound in semiequip bookings in 2002), is just a massive headfake If it were just a few commodities that were rising, I would be inclined to agree with you. But the breadth of this move, with nearly every commodity participating, suggests to me that it is more than just an aberration. Keep in mind that moderate inflation is now becoming the policy option of choice. Deflation scares the pants off of everyone in Washington. Also consider that tremendous amounts of farmland in China and elsewhere are being developed for light industry and residential uses. I got my start on Wall Street as a runner on the Coffee and Sugar Exchange and the Comex 30 years ago. Commodities have the best reward/risk profile that I have seen in a very long time. It would not surprise me if we were to be talking about stagflation two years from now. Sam