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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4582)	12/23/2002 11:05:37 AM
From: C_Johnson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Cary, I am not sure which "suggestion" you are referring to, but I think "almost subjective" is a reasonable characterization of most of the conclusions we are forced to draw in order to invest. I was referring to the use of the term "heuristically". I might have misunderstood your use of the word. I guess I differ with you and other "slower growth" proponents in that I think the slow growth is a short term phenomenon in response to the bubble and not a change in the (ideal) long term secular rate. When I look at ten years of data I have a hard time saying that this is a "short term" phenomena. Granted, there will be cyclical growth that is probably higher than what the longer term trend suggests but I suspect when measured over longer periods the industry is going to trend in line with the growth in the end electronic equipment markets. I say this because I know if the industry bounces 15, 20 or 30 percent anytime in the next few years there are going to be many who latch on to the growth in that one cycle and say, "See, I told you these guys were wrong!" Short term, anything can happen. I see that my reference to 8-10% and "pundits" could be taken by other threaders as direct criticism of what you have presented. Just so you know, I did not take it as criticism. I am criticized a lot, like many "pundits" but in a debate you are not always supposed to agree. Over the years I've learned that criticism comes with the territory. :-) I appreciate your commentary. Regards, Carl