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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (21115)	12/22/2002 4:16:40 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30712

OK, look at each instance the COMP stopped in the past 2-years prior to hitting the lower BB, and I'll provide you a Fib number, moving average, or trendline that stopped it. I'm looking for something similar here, that's all. It's not the 50SMA that stopped it, or a fib number, and I do not see trendlines sufficient to cause a reversal unless they are really long term ones. That's really what I'm looking for--really long term trendlines that could have been in play Thursday at the 1346 low.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (21115)	12/22/2002 10:18:56 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

edit--thresholdtrading.com comments for the past week with view of market action ahead. <<When we allude to Bullish Percents (BP's), we are talking about the PUREST form of measuring RISK for the markets........for further information on Bullish Percents, please view this LINK. Not much to add this week as nothing has changed...........so lets keep it short and to the point The bullish percents were topping on 11/23 and went to a SELL signal on 12/8........this week we remain on a SELL signal which suggests supply still has control of the market. A sell signal does not suggest we go straight down, however, its does suggest RISK for being bullish here remains HIGH. Its not uncommon to see short term rallies or continual churning at current levels before a larger pullback occurs.(that's why i say it just 'stopped' at 1346, the churn boys were at play--low volume sets this up --max Aside from the bullish percents suggesting high risk for bulls.............GOLD and the XAU are moving up smartly, the long bond suggests stable to lower rates and the US Dollar remains in an 11 month downtrend after breaking down from a 2 year topping pattern. These are not the signs of a new bull market. Last week we reviewed the COMPQ daily chart. We are nearing the most likely spot (1320) for a bounce......a bounce is likely only to relieve slightly oversold conditions on the daily charts and form the right shoulder of the head & shoulder pattern setting up, then we are likely to see a move down to fill the gaps shown on the COMPQ chart. Reduced liquidity (low volume) is traditional and likely for the next 2 weeks, therefore, sharp and unexplained swings are common.............nonetheless, the Bearish pressures outlined above suggest a bounce will not likely last for long. In summary.........sharp swings from reduced liquidity for the next two weeks and a holiday bounce would likely only relieve slightly oversold conditions before our next leg down. SPX up to 910-15 would be my best guess for a bounce. As for the bigger PIC.........most charts are clearly in some kind of large trading range with the 200MA being the ceiling and October lows being the floor. My best guidance for trading this market would be 1) trade light and give your ideas some time and wiggle room (within reason) to work out 2) be patient and be an opportunist.......don't restrict yourself to thinking bullish or bearish.....think in terms of the risk you are willing to take on a particular position and compare that to the 'potential' reward you expect.....this will keep you from trading JUST to trade. 3) rather than trying to trade this market in both directions...........focus on longs or shorts, this will make you refine your skills in this volatile and opportunistic market. 4) DO NOT trade this market on margin, its not that kind of market.>>