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To: elpolvo who wrote (10763)12/23/2002 3:47:55 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 89467
 
Retailers Falter in Holiday Home Stretch
Monday December 23, 3:15 pm ET
By Emily Kaiser

[in November I predicted pathetic Christmas retail sales]

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Time is running out for U.S. retailers to salvage the holiday season as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - News) and other major stores report another week of disappointing sales, even after advertising aggressively and offering steep discounts.

The busiest shopping weekend of the year may be over, but retailers are still holding out hope that a last rush of shoppers and strong after-Christmas sales will do the trick. Investors were less sanguine on sales prospects, sending the Standard & Poor's Retailing Index (^GSPMS - News) down 2.7 percent in afternoon trading.

"As many companies are not seeing improved sales momentum as we approach the holiday, we expect sales and profit warnings over the coming weeks," Dan Barry, retail analyst with Merrill Lynch said in a research note.

U.S. retailers took in $7.2 billion on Saturday, edging out the so-called Black Friday after Thanksgiving when the total reached $7.0 billion, according to ShopperTrak RCT's National Retail Sales Estimate, which tracks sales data. The data showed December sales on a pace to fall 5.5 percent from last year.

"Although the day after Christmas can be a very strong sales day, it is not likely to turn this year's performance into a winning one," said Michael Niemira, lead consultant to the National Retail Sales Estimate and a senior retail analyst with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Even J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE:JCP - News), which had been outpacing the sector, stumbled last week, reporting sales that were slightly weaker than it had planned.

In another ominous sign for the retail sector, consumer electronics chain Tweeter Home Entertainment Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:TWTR - News) on Monday warned its quarterly profit would fall well short of Wall Street expectations on weak holiday sales, sending its shares down more than 33 percent.

WAL-MART STRUGGLES
Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, said its December sales at stores open at least a year -- or same-store sales -- were running at the low end of its expectations for growth in the range of 3 percent to 5 percent.

In a recorded sales update covering the week ended Friday, Dec. 20, it said same-store sales at its namesake discount stores were running slightly below its forecast, and its Sam's Club discount stores might report a drop in same-store sales. Wal-Mart's report did not include the Saturday before Christmas, although Monday's updates from several other retailers did.

"We're hearing about some increasing strength on Saturday and there's still a couple big, big days to go before Christmas," said retail analyst Todd Slater of Lazard Freres. "Consumers tend to wait longer and longer every year. Procrastination may be hitting all-time highs," Slater said.

Retailers slashed prices and extended store hours in hopes of drawing shoppers over the weekend in a holiday season marred by a sluggish economy and the threat of war with Iraq, which have crushed consumer confidence -- and spending.

Analysts were looking for the sector to post only modest gains in holiday sales this year, but a weak December could push results below even conservative forecasts. Nine of the 10 biggest shopping days of the year usually fall in December.

J.C. Penney, which had been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lackluster sector, reported sales at its namesake department stores were "a little softer" than it had expected.

However, its December same-store sales were still running slightly ahead of its forecast for a percentage increase in the low-single digits, bolstered by a strong start to the month.

KMART, FEDERATED
Bankrupt discount retailer Kmart Corp. (Other OTC:KMRTQ.PK - News) reported October same-store sales fell 3.9 percent -- its smallest decline since it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January, but November same-store sales tumbled 17.2 percent, hurt by a late Thanksgiving.

Kmart's fiscal period ends on the last Wednesday of the month, so November's results did not include Thanksgiving weekend, which was counted in last year's tally. As a result, it forecast December's sales would improve from November's.

Federated Department Stores Inc. (NYSE:FD - News), the parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, said demand did not pick up as much as it had hoped last week. In a recorded update covering results through Saturday, Dec. 21, Federated said it now looked likely that same-store sales for November and December would miss its goal of flat to down 2.5 percent.

Still to come on Monday is the weekly update from discount and department store operator Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT - News).

-end-