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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fred hayes who wrote (7597)	12/23/2002 1:36:59 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Fred: Brave New World stuff, nobody is going to have the background to assess this one. A few of us, Rudy Saucillo prominent among those, have watched closely since the old days of Picower (and before!). It's going to be WYSIWYG stuff, IMO. Too risky for my blood, but..... if there's ever a point where an NDA goes in, I'll place a modest bet. If there's ever a product approval, I'll buy hand over fist. That is..... if there's ever a point where the odds look good, one won't be able to resist. >> remember pimagedine << Certainly! Nice to know that you go back that far with interesting stuff. Sorry it burned you. Which H&Q analyst made the call? Rick

To: fred hayes who wrote (7597)	12/23/2002 4:09:44 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 52153

fred, I keep an eye on Alteon. Their capital structure is a mess and they haven't much cash, but if they strike gold with their trial it won't matter. I was tempted to buy some once, but my recollection is that Rick fortunately talked me out of it. Their science is fascinating and they have a huge potential market. But it's very hard to handicap their trial, and it's hard to know when the right time to play them would be. Buying them at this point is like buying an option - you stand a fair chance of losing all your money, but you have some chance at a multi-bagger. Maybe Rick's notion of waiting for the trial results makes sense. You'd miss a double/triple if the trial was successful, but you'd have a lot more information and you'd still likely be in time for a subsequent double/triple. Hard to tell how significant the elevated triglyceride level is. It's a strike against the compound, and would likely make a prospective partner nervous. Peter