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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (3210)	12/31/2002 12:11:38 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

Godot, sorry for coming back so late to your post and many thx for your links. The company PR on the annual report issued today seems to echo the tone of the 2nd link to provided: new, changed farm program stabilizing sugar prices - CEO Peiser mentioned this, too. Gross margins this quarter are also up to almost 8.2%.. (from around 5% in the last 2 years). The NAFTA impact that you mention is real and one reason of Imperial having to file Ch11 in the past. BUT - they sold almost 2/3 of their upstream assets. I believe they now have a "tapered integration" strategy available to them. By keeping the most efficient plants and shedding, selling all the others, they be planning to buy a good percentage 30-50% of their downstream sugar needs onthe open market. If worldwide prices are higher they buy less, if they are lower, they buy more. The shedding of upstream assets seems to give them an opportunity to play "arbitrage games" with sugar prices. Gradual market opening could be actually beneficial to them. And I do know that their California refining assets could be up for sale, too. 2 years ago, before Chapter 11 a newspaper article mentioned farm cooperative interests intheir Michigan, Midwest and California refineries. The former 2 plants Imperial already sold. California is still there. I'm sure it's up for sale when the price is right.. IPSU is also emphasizing cane sugar instead of beet sugar.. Good idea, better spread.. Some additions as I read the PR for the FY-2002 again and found this text "impacted by the sale of certain business units, including .... beet factory in Worland, Wyo." This means that the 2nd sale of beet sugar plants - the one to American Crystal - Torrington, Wyoming - Sidney, Montana and a 3rd took must have taken place after closing of year-end books. And indeed, I was right.. the asset purchase agreement - it'S dated Oct. 7th.. Not in the 10K but in the upcoming 10Q.. Hmmm.. sec.gov. And nice clues indeeed.. "cash payment equal to Thirty Four Million Dollars ($34,000,000); plus the book value of the Operating Supplies in excess of $1,000,000; less the agreed-upon value of the Excluded Equipment; and less the value of any Sidney Byproducts sold by Seller prior to the Closing Date" This transaction should add around $35m in cash. Then the Hormel deal - for $115m - should add more than $115m in cash. Together this amounts to $150m. If my calculations are correct, we may arrive at a book value of around $13 at LEAST when the next quarterly PR is going to be announced.. and my figure is after any tax payments rgrds CROSSY