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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (3400)	12/23/2002 4:22:27 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT ** >> She moved up and stayed up Yeah, surprise that the longs didn't take profit today. Did the market digest Cap'n Morgan's 500k shares already ? Maybe this will help. -------------------------- Holiday Season Looks Grim for Retailers 43 minutes ago Add Business - AP to My Yahoo! By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Business Writer NEW YORK - The holiday season is looking more grim for retailers, as merchants such as J.C. Penney and Federated Department Stores reported Monday that even with heavy discounting, the late sales rush they were hoping for failed to materialize. ------------------------------ Maybe people are not buying clothes, they're buying electronic gizmos. Sarmad

To: advocatedevil who wrote (3400)	12/23/2002 5:12:18 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 13403

OT: Trading was on the light side today AD. The SOX managed to close well as did AMAT but both the SOX and HWI are still below their respective 50 day sma's despite the fact that the NDX and NASDAQ closed above theirs. You can't expect much of a further rise from these two important indices unless the SOX continues higher too. The 50 day sma should be strong resistance. One big negative for the longs is that the put/call ratio was at the low end all day indicating too much bullishness in the face of weak retail sales, high oil prices and as I just read it the specter of war looming over the market: cboe.com The market closed well enough for the SOX to take a run at its 50 day sma tomorrow. Still looking at 312 and rising: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2!c20!c10!c200][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9!Ld20]&pref=G On the plus side for the longs one close over that level and it may yet be possible that the bulls get their year end rally. Regardless of that possibility I don't see enough volume coming into the market to change the current downturn back into a real bull run. Unfortunately from the standpoint of your bearish AMAT position we aren't necessarily all that likely to get enough selling to do a lot of harm now either. Trading between now and New Years will probably be fairly meaningless to actually helping to define the trend one way or the other. I guess we will have to wait and see. Good luck with that large short position. I would actually like to be long the semiconductors but there is no reason to commit until we see the situation in Iraq favorably resolved with oil prices falling again. These high oil prices are going to really cut into corporate profits. EDIT This just in from Briefing.com: Updated: 24-Dec-02 General Commentary All in all, traders continue to contend with more of the same. Consistent with the recent pattern, Monday's trade activity once again occurred on notably light volume -- the Nasdaq didn't make 1.2 billion total shares traded. So perhaps the most notable developments occurred in the commodity markets. Note that front month crude oil settled at $31.75 per barrel, up $1.45 versus Friday's close. At the same time, front month gold closed at $345.60 per oz., up $4.60 on the day. Now these aren't exactly the most bullish developments, yet with the aforementioned thin trading conditions, it's difficult to make too much of them. Looking ahead, we have the holiday week before us. Yet as a practical matter, this means there isn't much to look towards at all. The earnings calendar is literally empty, and the economic calendar is relatively light as well. With that as the backdrop, the technical outlook becomes somewhat more influential. Now before we get to the straight technical levels, it probably makes sense to revisit our more recent technical take on the Nasdaq. Note that we shifted to a near-term bearish bias back on Tuesday, December 3rd following the Nasdaq's December 2nd peak at 1,521. Then on Monday, December 9th we took a more neutral tone, leaning in favor of a 'choppy' intermediate-term outlook. That neutral view was reiterated the following week on Monday, December 16th. So the good news is that the actual market performance has matched up reasonably well with those broad expectations. Yet at the same time, the bad news is that the markets continue to be in something of a rut going into these more thinly traded sessions around the holidays. Now Monday's activity wasn't entirely uneventful as the Nasdaq actually cleared both its 50-day simple moving average and its 20-week exponential moving average -- this despite the thin volume. So the very near-term bias has once again improved modestly, but traders will continue to key off many of the same landmarks. On a near to intermediate-term basis, the immediate bias will improve or deteriorate based on the Nasdaq's relationship to the following key levels: 1) the 1360 level which represents straight-line support going back to October, 2) the 1373 to 1377 range which brackets the index' 50-day simple moving average as well as its 20-week exponential moving average, and 3) the 1390 level which currently represents the Nasdaq's 20-day exponential moving average and also matches up with prior congestion. Other points of interest appear as shown in the chart above. Mike Ashbaugh RtS