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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (704)	12/23/2002 9:59:45 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, et al, Yes, we have had a significant move in the POG during the past couple of weeks. It could get even more interesting if it breaks into the high 350s. Lease rates suggest that there is still leased gold being sold into the market to hold the price down but it doesn't appear to be working as it did in the past. The one-year rate jumped from about 0.60 % to 0.78 % as the price was knocked back but the POG appears to be moving up again this evening. It will be interesting to see if rates fall back as more gold is made available to lease. I assume the gold is being made available to lease by CBs and, if so, it would appear to be at odds with Sinclair's understanding of what Greenspan is saying. However, it is probably I that doesn't understand. Thank you for the reference to Klombies work. I haven't followed him for a long time; though I was impressed by his work. I will read his material later. You may recall that the reason I post the GMI bit is that it was pointed out that the companies that make up the GMI are influenced less by base metals than the companies the make up the XAU. This means the GMI would be impacted more than the XAU is the POG really flies as some believe that it will. I agree that the GMI ratio info I post isn't telling us that we are at one extreme or the other. And, it probably won't be worth much until I find time to put it into a spread sheet but I don't know when that time will come. For a few moments this weekend, I thought Barron's had given us a good contrary signal concerning PMs. ERIN ARVEDLUN's article on Funds started with the question Gold: The New Nasdaq? He then went on the point out how gold funds had done well this past year and noting that "Hathaway believes gold's rise should continue on fundamentals, such as declining metal production, and as other "safe havens are defrocked." However, while he commented that Hathaway is not is no gold bug, he also said he is not "a member of the so-called gold Taliban, conspiracists who grumble that gold-mining companies deliberately kept the metal's price down, in part because of large hedging positions. He also devoted several paragraphs to a discussion of the PIMCO (Bill Gross) view that the dollar will continue to fall along with the markets, which supports to Hathaway view. However, the majority of the article was anything but supportive of gold. The GMI/POG ratio: On 12/19, the Barron's GMI was at 466.92, up significantly from the previous week's 454.48. With the POG also up significantly at 341.69 (12/20), the ratio was unchanged at 1.37. The ratio a year previously was 1.13. Cheers and Merry Christmas, Larry