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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (18466)	12/26/2002 11:47:42 AM
From: Frederick Langford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

From The Chart Room Coal In Amazon's Stocking Ben Berentson, 12.26.02, 8:00 AM ET NEW YORK - Curtis Hesler, the editor of the Professional Timing Service, deserves to take a bow. In 2002 he had a perfect record for picks in this column. On July 4, he recommended buying Kinder Morgan at $30. It now trades at $34, a gain of 13%. On Nov. 14, Hesler proposed a seasonal trade on gold stock ASA Limited. Then it traded at $32. It now trades at $38--a 19% gain. But his most impressive pick was his Feb. 7 call to short Microsoft. His proprietary Hyperion model had flashed a sell signal and predicted a drop from $62 to $40. It dropped to $41. But even if you hadn't sold at that point, you would still be up. Microsoft trades for $53 today. So what is Hesler's outlook for 2003? "I'm bearish," he says. "I think we'll go lower than we did this year--below the October lows. I think that the economy will get worse and profits will fall on a real basis. However, I'm bullish on gold and energy stocks." Hesler still likes Kinder Morgan (nyse: KMP - news - people ) and ASA (nyse: ASA - news - people ), but his advice for 2003? Short shares of Amazon.com (nasdaq: AMZN - news - people ), which is currently trading for just under $22. "I think Amazon looks like a second chance to short the techs. If you've ever said, 'Boy, I wish I shorted the Nasdaq at 5000,' here's another opportunity." His pick is based on the same Hyperion timing model that called the Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) short: It is based on weekly price data and locates reversals, also knows as pivot points, to trade on. Amazon has been on a run for the second half of the year, moving up almost 80% since the summer. It has slipped back from a high of around $25 and has been treading water at around $22. "If we break below this consolidation level, there's nothing to support the stock," Hesler says. "The Hyperion timing model is waiting for a trade of over $22.62, and then will short it on the way down at $21.20." This pivot point represents the beginning of the mid-November price jump from $21 to $25. Hesler thinks Amazon could drop to $12 during 2003 and suggests initially putting in a stop at $25, but adjusting that to protect your gains. forbes.com Fred