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To: NOW who wrote (62255)12/26/2002 6:33:47 PM
From: jjstingray  Respond to of 209892
 
Nothing is coming up, can you recheck your post.



To: NOW who wrote (62255)12/26/2002 7:20:09 PM
From: AllansAlias  Respond to of 209892
 
Dunno. I have not done a study to compare VXN (or one of its cousins) to actual volatility to see whether or not divergences are tradable. I am doubtful that it is useful, but until one does such a study, one should not trust one's intuition.

The first thing to ask this person is how he/she is measuring "actual" volatility, as there are a number of methods.



To: NOW who wrote (62255)12/26/2002 10:32:37 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Implied volatility < HV30 for NDX

ivolatility.com

but slightly higher for OEX

today's updated figures don't come out till tomorrow

historical volatility can rise if market just breaks out of a range in either direction so it's hard to predict.