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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (3158)	12/27/2002 12:06:19 AM
From: Mark Marcellus	Respond to of 4691

I'm taking a close look at ANF too, and it does look interesting. I've been a long time coming to this one, their advertising really bothers me. I usually don't let things like that affect my investing decisions but this was a tough one. Re profits from new stores, management is on record saying they are close to saturation on the core concept. However, we're getting to a price where you could be happy with the results even if they settled for milking the cash cow, never mind the potential upside from Hollister. I'm not too worried about them making mistakes by overexpanding or losing sight of their core concept, management seems to be both smart and determined not to repeat the mistakes of Gap.

To: James Clarke who wrote (3158)	12/27/2002 1:19:13 AM
From: - with a K	Respond to of 4691

Lots to like about ANF at this price, IMO: nice margins, strong brand, low valuations, no debt, and good management scores with ROA and ROI. I show a fair value of $38 using a Ben Graham formula plucked from The Fool site. But why the steady decline in ROE since 1996? Is it a concern to you?

To: James Clarke who wrote (3158)	1/6/2003 1:08:05 PM
From: hoyasaxa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

I don't get the ANF cheering going on here. I don't like their clothes and don't know anyone in any age range who does. I do not see them as an enduring brand like polo or a "staple clothes"/commodity-like store like the gap and put them more in the catagory of the Jcrews out there. Fashion is fickle and so will be the margins of ANF going forward IMHO. I will bet anyone a dollar that ANF does not exist in 10 years. Certainly not a Buffett stock! All that said, perhaps it could be a good ST trade.