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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: talksfree who wrote (30471)	12/27/2002 11:03:30 AM
From: John Biddle	Respond to of 196713

AT&T has been moving strongly to EDGE for some time. It never realistically expected to deploy the WCDMA network in June of 2003, or else it would not be devoting so much time to GRPS deployment and EDGE development. AWE and DoCoMo were not originally planning to roll WCDMA by June of 2003, but by June of 2004. There's only been a six months delay, not 18. My guess is that, until WCDMA is commercially deployed across the globe and "works", we will never see anything other than minor deployments of WCDMA. Do you mean that AWE won't deploy WCDMA except in a minor way until WCDMA is proven elsewhere, or that others will have this cautious approach also. Probably just a typo, but you seem to have set up a Catch 22 here. The public announcement has more to do with the specifics of the AT&T/DOCOMO deal (and placating shareholders) than it does with the real world aspects of a WCDMA deployment. I don't see it that way. The announcement was specifically about the change in timing (from 6/04 to 12/04) and breadth (from 13 cities down to only parts of 4). The terms of the original agreement were never really public, and still aren't. Only AWE and DoCoMo know what they really got for their $10B. The reference in one article to AWE's ability to stop rolling out WCDMA at 4 and stay within the agreement isn't necessarily a change from the original; it may be just a substituting of the new roll out plan for the original roll out plan. They may have been allowed to stop after the initial roll out in the original agreement as well. Second, Sprint and Verizon (more so) have real spectrum limitations that would preclude them from expecting or wanting to take over all of the AT&T/Cingular subscribers. They are focusing on steading and sustainable growth until the spectrum issues are resolved. I don't believe this to be fully correct either. Verizon does indeed have some issues with spectrum, witness their comments and their recent purchase. However, Sprint has been steadfast in their statements that they have all the spectrum they need, and the numbers (how much they have vs are using) and their history are consistent with this. Even Verizon's admitted difficulty with spectrum may not be all it seems. It may just be a local issue in the NYC area, and it may just be that Verizon has a very healthy estimate for how big wireless data is going to get, and are just being conservative. Admittedly this may be just over-optimism on my part. After all, they did just nix EVDO after a highly successful technical test. Sprint has certainly changed its marketing lately and begun to focus more on "profitable customers" and away from "customers at any cost", but to attribute this to spectrum deficiencies is just plain wrong.