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To: Gottfried who wrote (172315)	12/27/2002 12:12:18 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: Worst holiday spending in 30 yrs. Yes, I have heard this repeated over and over again and no doubt the 1.5% same store sales growth is the lowest since the 1970's. But this sounds more ominous than it really is, IMO. Most of those 30 years had underlying rates of price increases much higher than we have now. Productivity growth and cost cutting have kept price increases to a minimum as have competition from on-line sellers. Finally, the boom in gift certificates has shifted some of the holiday spending to after Christmas as these can't be recorded as sales until the merchandise has left the building. Which would you rather have a 7% increase in year over year same stores sales and an inflation rate of 7% or a 1.5% same store increase and minimal inflation? Now maybe even accounting for inflation, this was a bad Christmas, but I doubt it qualifies as the disaster that most are so eager to label it.