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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: crdesign who wrote (19)12/27/2002 12:40:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1210
 
prepare for DotCom-like appreciation of gold/silver miners
this will repeat the crazy 1990's
but it will take time, since the loony investment community has almost no recollection of the fabled 1970 decade

I REMEMBER IT LIKE YESTERDAY, GRASSHOPPER
I was working in graduate school, toiling endlessly with mathematical equations, proofs, difficult theory, matrix algebra, logic, computer applications, data analysis

and in the background, I watch GOLD
I finished my doctoral thesis in summer 1980
that spring summer autumn, gold exploded to make its top

fools in the press/media claimed it was all about IRAN
now it is all about IRAQ
wrong then, wrong now
back then, it was about negative real shorterm Trez rates, but with very high nominal rates
CPI inflation outpaced the shortend of the Trez yield curve
so they got negative reals on 3-month TBills

now we have negative reals from the opposite side
very low 3-mo TBill yield, but 2% CPI
actually I think CPI is closer to 3.0-3.5% now
gold responds to true real yields, not reported real yields

the Iraqi War is very minor in importance to gold
the press/media will have to find another reason for gold's rise after Iraq settles down in the news
maybe they will figure it out
I TRULY DOUBT IT

a growing fever will envelop the world around gold
it wont end until 2005, at least
/ jim