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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (15973)	12/27/2002 10:25:19 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

Jurgis I agree about the adjustments to high low prices to account for different shares outstanding. I didn't do it because the exact number of "New Common" isn't yet known, but using 70 would be in line with being conservative. Even with the adjustments, the old shares have traded right at the derived necessary strike according to Don's methodology. And have done so within the last 3 years: 64.31 x (40/70) = 37.00 and the year before that the high was 90 so: 90 x (40/70) = 51.429. Which is 50% higher than that target. To me, though the whole approach, while interesting to explore, is not at all valid to how I made my determination of value. I outlined that in a previous post. just nitpicking and thinking that your proposed investment is quite risky...too many unknowns and variables. That's OK. There are always too many unknowns and variables, yet we manage to make a market anyway. I'm not recommending that anyone invest (or speculate, if you will) in Armstrong. There are a lot of companies who are seriously affected by asbestos litigation and it appears as though Armstrong is the first to be emerging from the havoc. They may have struck the worst deal to come out, we may not know for some time. However, this issue will be revisited, I suspect, by many different companies and at least some discussion of the considerations involved has been spurred in this debate on Armstrong. I have decided, thanks in part to the clarifying of my thinking that has been effected through this debate to take a decent sized position in the current common stock (Well, at least the number of shares sounds impressive, even if the dollar amount involved isn't estate shattering!). I will keep the board informed of any moves I make regarding these holdings, if it is desired that I do so. Timba