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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lee kramer who wrote (38669)	12/28/2002 3:24:39 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Respond to of 69822

Hi Lee, here is the gist -- an example for Jan 3 A) Count all the Jan 3rds between now and 1960. B) Count how many of them were up (previous day Jan 2nd closing price is less than Jan 3rd). For the "How Much" Sum the percent change (Jan2/Jan3) and divide by the total number of up Jan3 days. This gives an average. C) Count how many Jan 3rds were down. D) Divide the count from step B by total from step A. This gives the percent chance of rising. (The down calculation is similar.) E) Repeat the steps for all trading days. Then Stop! The Stock Trader's Almanac (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1889223034/qid=1041106630/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_1/103-4166316-5233406?v=glance&s=books&n=507846) calculates this stat as well as many more. I was verifying that the numbers I got were close to theirs. I got all the index data free from Yahoo. Lawrence