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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21483)	12/28/2002 10:51:56 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, by explosive rally do you mean one that takes NDX above 1053? what do you see as the principal driver of this prospective rally? ... while we are oversold and in a downtrend for four weeks now, I am not sure about a rally before we hit lower BB at NDX 973/COMP 1320 ... looking at QQQ call/put OI, it seems that QQQ 24/NDX 970/COMP 1315 should be the floor for the time being ... 50/20 sma at NDX 1031/1041 might provide some resistance though

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (21483)	12/29/2002 12:47:41 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

Explosive rally in a last gasp effort to window dress should be expected. If it doesn't happen the market is going to roll-over and die within the next 3-4 weeks and one will see its' carcass floating downstream on any polluted river of your choice. Now for some "off topic" thought streaming---basically to point out the danger of depending on past market history to predict the next year. Remember about November the public was guaranteed the new bull market had begun and that this glorious new bull was going to take the SPX to well over 1000 by EOY. Strangely in the midst of all that drum pounding and relentless cheerleading pouring out of the TV(and by MANY on SI) and Barron's and such the Mutual Funds were still having a net outflow. That is NOT a contrarian signal. Public is supposed to buy equities in a rally-ho and the media blitz of total BS. But they were selling more than buying. They are not LISTENING, or they are listening but with more and more saying "you lying BSing scum bags" and they curse the name Abby Joseph Cohen and spit on their TV screen when the #1 incompetent Kudlow appears on the screen. The public was ASSURED over and over that market has never been down 3 years in a row( at the beginning of the year they carefully avoided saying "except during the following the 1929 crash", but by mid year they were saying it was never down 3 years except post 1929, and now they are into Never 4 years, but neglecting to say "o by the way the first 1/2 of 1932 was absolute hell".) BTW, could the market end down 4 years in row? There is ZERO statistical cause to say it can NOT be down 4 years in row. One need remember the market is being measured in a very limited time frame, as time extends, new occurrences invade---things like in the past 100 years means nothing to extending time.Max