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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (7901)	12/29/2002 8:02:20 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

From Briefing.com: Updated: 30-Dec-02 - General Commentary - Barring a spectacular recovery in the last couple of sessions, December is going to be a lousy month for the market in general, and the tech sector in particular. Tech heavy Nasdaq, which is down 8.8% so far this month, has erased nearly all of November's impressive 11.2% gain. Though geopolitical tensions have been blamed for much of the reversal, Briefing.com thinks there's much more behind the retreat. In fact, we've argued all along that the sector/market got way ahead of itself during the Oct-Nov rally. Unfortunately, while stocks were rallying the underlying earnings picture wasn't getting much better. So for stocks to maintain their upward momentum we needed to see some big Q4 numbers, or at least compelling and consistent evidence that end-user demand was on the rise. We didn't think it would happen - and it didn't. Consequently, stocks started to back up and the selling accelerated along with the rising global tensions. Now we have a situation in which the Nasdaq has closed below its 50-day moving average in 6 of the last 7 sessions. The Nasdaq hasn't rallied above its 50-day moving average much during the 3-yr downturn, but on those few occasions when it has the rally was over as soon as the index closed below this key level on two straight days. If recent history is to repeat itself, traders should brace for lower prices over the near- to intermediate-term. Exactly how low is always difficult to judge, especially when the uncertainty of war hangs over the market. But first support is in the 1320-1300 area, with penetration targeting the 1270-1260 range. A move back to these levels seems highly likely at this point. That's not to say we won't see some light seasonal buying bolster the sector for a couple of days here and there, but considering the threat of war, the lack of earnings visibility and the deteriorating technical tone, look for the smart money to sell into any near-term gains. Robert Walberg Weekly Wrap : Christmas came and went without even a hint of a Santa Claus rally on Wall Street. Saddam Hussein was the grinch that stole the usual Christmas rally, as investors spent the holiday shortened week growing increasingly concerned that the U.S. would end up going to war to oust the Iraqi leader. Heightened tensions between the U.S. and N. Korea, which expelled two U.N. nuclear inspectors, also weighed on the market. But geopolitical issues not market's only concern. Traders were also very disappointed in this week's soft Durable Goods report. Data rekindled fears that business investment would remain soft for another year. Without a rebound in capital spending by corporate America, the nascent economic recovery will remain sluggish and earnings growth be slow. Speaking of earnings, traders also nervous about the upcoming warnings season. This period has been particularly painful over the past couple of quarters, and many investors are opting for the safety of the sidelines ahead of this quarter's rush of preannouncements. So far 444 companies have lowered guidance for Q4, well below the total of 782 during the same period last year (though we're just heading into the teeth of warnings season). However, at the current pace there's a good chance the number of warnings in Q4 will exceed the number in Q3, making this the second straight quarter in which the total number of warnings has gone up. Disappointing retail sales figures also contributed to the gloomy tone on Wall Street. Though Briefing.com contends that the media overstated the weakness, there's no denying that retailers generally fell shy of expectations. With war and warnings hanging over the market, there's little reason to think that stocks will stage a big recovery effort in the week ahead. Frankly, when you add the deteriorating technical tone to the fact that neither the war nor warnings concerns are likely to be satisified for at least a couple of weeks, Briefing.com expects traders to sell into any near-term rally tries. In such an environment, defensive type stocks such as gold, beverage, tobacco, healthcare and defense likely to remain market leaders. Financial, tech and retail apt to lag. 2:42PM Nasdaq Composite intraday levels : -- Technical -- Steady slide lower today for the tech dominated index but it has thus far been able to hold above the Dec low at 1346.18. Intraday need to see gains back through resistances at 1353 and 1359 to help improve the tone. Failure leaves the door open to a breach with minor supports at 1335 and 1330 followed by 1320. 10:50AM S&P 500 intraday levels : -- Technical -- Index slips to fresh session lows in recent trade and is flirting with support in the 882 area. The next level of interest is at 880.32 (Dec low) followed by the 879/877 area. A rebound back through resistances at 885/886 and 889/890 helps improve the very short term weaker bias. 8:57AM New Intel chipsets to pressure graphics chip mkt, flash price hikes unlikely to stick (INTC) 16.69: Digitimes.com reports that the graphics chip mkt is likely to suffer a second hit from integrated chipsets in 2003 when INTC introduces several integrated products for its new-generation Banias and Dothan notebook platforms; however, SG Cowen believes this will have a minimal impact on ATYT and no impact for NVDA. In addition, Digitimes reports that some Taiwanese IC distributors are doubting whether INTC will be able to raise flash prices by its planned 20-40% on Jan 1 due to fast-growing supply. 8:11AM Silicon Storage cuts Q4 guidance (SSTI) 4.20: Cuts their Q4 forecast to a loss of $0.07-$0.10, vs previous guidance of a loss of $0.03-$0.05; co says shortfall is primarily due to avg selling prices that have declined more than expected. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+SSTI+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t Don, I think Briefing.com has got this prediction right but I do expect something of a rally tomorrow before the real selling begins. RtS