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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (26613)	12/29/2002 11:59:01 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Elmat, Do not fret so. Gravity works, reversion to the mean rules, each wave crest of the ocean is followed by a trough, and then another wave crest, nothing lasts forever, and often a lot less than forever, et cetera, ad infinitum, ad nauseam, so on and, oh you know, so forth. The end of the beginning and the beginning of the end often look quite similar, as we well know from lessons in stock mania participation. The art is knowing which is what, and what is when. Maurice, secure in his knowledge of the unknowable, that Maestro Greensputin, together with the masses, is staked on the USD, perhaps as the lesser of all evils amongst the Yen, Euro and whatever other colourful paper he believes are worthy of being called money. Jay, OTOH, is counting on the specie, the true money, gold, to do what it had done for as long as anyone can remember and before that, to do the right thing, be the money that rules over all cash. The financial-scape is becoming more, not less, dangerous by the day, and in fact, by the year as well. At the end of this current play, few will remain standing, much less fighting trim. Chugs, Jay

To: elmatador who wrote (26613)	12/30/2002 12:53:22 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi elmat, Harold James seems like my kind of guy. :) Though I do find reason to question some of his assumptions (see below). Here's a review of his book "The End of Globalization" that struck a chord: As the world economy slows down, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. There is more pressure for trade protection, anti-immigration sentiment in Europe and elsewhere increases, and anti-globalization protests erupt. With this background, this book about the great depression of the inter-war period provides a really terrifying precedent of what happens when the world economy collapses. It is fluidly written, and although there is a great deal of economic analysis of the problems of financial markets in the interwar era, it is really accessible to lay readers. If you are worried about the economic future, and want to scare yourself, this is the book to read. Source: amazon.com As our wannabee spagetti-western Julius Caesar unilaterally pisses off everybody on the planet with his remarkable lack of diplomatic finesse, it's not hard to image the world's leaders and a rabble of currency speculators reacting to America's bullying tactics with a rapid assault on the increasingly vulnerable dollar. Could be an interesting conflagration. *********** I find that James makes a interesting and revealing mistake in his Financial Times analysis. He states: The world will in this manner be stabilised by the benign* force of Washington - a dream very close to that of Augustus.* More astute observers of Washington's hegemon find the belief that Washington is "benign" to be risible. Washington, as exemplified in spades by the installed and unelected Bushista junta, is widely regarded as a malevolent force; crushing inconvenient democracies (Guatamala, Chile, Iran, Nicaragua, etc.) suppressing/cheating commercial rivals (with unethical means such as Echelon), imposing unnecessary militarism (eg. Eastern Europe forced to join NATO and purchase U.S. arms dealers wares), and blatant disregard for stabilizing multinational institutions. Methinks James is wrong about the nature of the beast in Washington. -Ray