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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (38678)	12/30/2002 3:34:40 AM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Respond to of 69853

Business failures shoot up in 2002 LONDON (Reuters) - Business failures in Britain shot up in 2002 to the highest number since the end of the economic recession in 1994, a survey has shown. Business information company D&B (previously called Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB - news) ) said business failures rose by 7.2 percent to 43,500 in 2002 after slipping in the previous two years. "The rise in the number of business failures is the result of the economic downturn," said Philip Mellor, senior analyst at D&B. Moreover, he warned that even more businesses could go bust next year as large firms failing this year take down smaller ones in 2003. D&B's figures show that of the 43,458 businesses that collapsed up until the first half of December, 18,628 were company liquidations and 24,830 were smaller business bankruptcies. uk.news.yahoo.com

To: Lachesis Atropos who wrote (38678)	12/30/2002 2:58:36 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69853

My stats are little rusty, but I think what he was doing was: For a down trend: 1) calculating the probability of the index reversing after being down 'n' days in a row. 2)calculating the probability of the index reversing after being down 'x' percent 3) The probability of a reversal is probability 1 multiplied by probability 2. Similar calculation for the uptrend. From memory he calculated the percent changes in 1 percent increments for simplicity.