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Technology Stocks : Network Appliance -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DownSouth who wrote (10360)	12/31/2002 4:31:15 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10934

Agree with everything you said. But I'll take a shot at the valuation, and TA/voodoo: If NTAP makes $0.30 in the forward 12 months, then a PE of 30 gives a stock price of 9, which I think is reasonable. I will trade around that price: buy in increments below 9, sell in increments above 9. I think we don't get any huge rebound in business spending in 2003, and by mid-year we'll all be talking about the anticipated second-half 2004 recovery in business spending. Consumer spending, IMO, goes flat to down in 2003, and technology upgrade cycles don't happen in that macro enviromnment. Therefore, I don't see much upside above where the latest rally died at 15. 20 at the outside, and that's not sustainable. On the downside, we've got a double bottom formed by the lows of 2001 and 2002. They are close enough, I'm guessing they form a firm floor. For the record, I used this rally to sell all my 2003 calls (at a loss), and half my 2004s (at a profit). Holding the 2005s I bought when NTAP was at 7.5