Powell: We are not on the brink of war
U.S. allies afraid of pushing North Korea over the edge
By Bill Nichols, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration's plan to defuse the growing crisis in North Korea rests largely on the willingness of four allies — South Korea, Japan, Russia and China — to press Pyongyang to stop its drive to build nuclear weapons.
But Asia experts, citing reaction from the region Monday to the administration's strategy, say the plan has one major flaw: None of those nations is likely to threaten North Korea with the sort of diplomatic or economic sanctions it might take to make Pyongyang back down.
All four, to varying degrees, fear that too much pressure on the reclusive communist regime could cause catastrophic chaos in the region, unleashing millions of refugees and perhaps tempting Pyongyang to use the very weapons the world so fears.
If Asian allies are unwilling to take tough action against North Korea, the United States could be left with few good diplomatic options. "The Bush administration has really put themselves in a corner on this," says Bates Gill, an Asia analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Secretary of State Colin Powell signaled the administration's strategy during a whirlwind tour of TV news shows Sunday. Faced with a rapid series of moves by North Korea to renounce a 1994 deal with Washington and restart an effort to produce weapons-grade plutonium from spent nuclear fuel, Powell made no threat of military action.
Instead, U.S. officials say the plan is to work through Asian allies, as well as the United Nations, to try to further isolate Pyongyang unless it curbs its nuclear ambitions.
U.S. policy is being driven by three principles: a refusal to reward North Korea's breaking of the 1994 pact; a recognition that a war with North Korea could result in huge U.S. casualties; and a desire to avoid direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang, which is what the administration believes North Korea wants.
"The international community has made clear that North Korea's relations with the outside world hinge on its termination of its nuclear programs," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Monday in Crawford, Texas, where President Bush is at his ranch.
U.S. allies in the region, however, would prefer a diplomatic offensive led by Washington and appear to have little interest in playing "bad cop" with North Korea.
"They have no stomach for confrontation," Cato Institute foreign policy analyst Ted Galen Carpenter says. "They all seem to assume that if we have the right carrots to offer Pyongyang, North Korea will negotiate and resume non-nuclear status."
A look at key U.S. allies:
Japan: Tokyo is most likely to go along with a tough U.S. diplomatic line. As the only country in the world that has had nuclear weapons used against it, Japan greatly fears a nuclear North Korea. "It's a big threat," says Misako Kaji, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. "We're in range of their missiles."
Japan already is withholding rice shipments to North Korea and is considering other restrictions on money transfers and trade. But analysts say Tokyo also fears that tough economic and diplomatic measures could so destabilize the North Korean regime that it could lash out at its neighbors.
South Korea: No country has more to fear from a nuclear North Korea; even a conventional war with Pyongyang would devastate Seoul, the South Korean capital.
But South Korea remains committed to a policy of engagement, not isolation, with its northern neighbor. President Kim Dae Jung said Monday that isolating the communist state would not work. Kim, who is to step down Feb. 25, told a Cabinet meeting, "Pressuring and isolating communist countries have never been successful — Cuba is one example."
President-elect Roh Moo Hyun also supports dialogue with North Korea and has advocated lessening South Korea's dependence on the United States, which has 37,000 troops stationed there.
China: President Jiang Zemin and Bush said they both oppose any nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula when they met in October at Bush's ranch. But U.S. officials question how aggressive China has really been in pressuring its fellow communist neighbor.
China fears the aftershocks of economic and diplomatic pressure, particularly if thousands of North Korean refugees begin surging across the Chinese border.
Russia: For the sake of regional security, Moscow also wants to deter North Korea's drive for nuclear weapons. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Monday that Pyongyang's recent actions "cannot help but provoke regret."
But Ivanov also urged Washington to tone down its "aggressive rhetoric," expressing Russia's historic distaste for any diplomatic circumstance in which the United States seems to be imposing its will on the world.
Snafu deteriorating into fubar...
U.S. allies afraid of pushing North Korea over the edge
By Bill Nichols, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration's plan to defuse the growing crisis in North Korea rests largely on the willingness of four allies — South Korea, Japan, Russia and China — to press Pyongyang to stop its drive to build nuclear weapons.
But Asia experts, citing reaction from the region Monday to the administration's strategy, say the plan has one major flaw: None of those nations is likely to threaten North Korea with the sort of diplomatic or economic sanctions it might take to make Pyongyang back down.
All four, to varying degrees, fear that too much pressure on the reclusive communist regime could cause catastrophic chaos in the region, unleashing millions of refugees and perhaps tempting Pyongyang to use the very weapons the world so fears.
If Asian allies are unwilling to take tough action against North Korea, the United States could be left with few good diplomatic options. "The Bush administration has really put themselves in a corner on this," says Bates Gill, an Asia analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Secretary of State Colin Powell signaled the administration's strategy during a whirlwind tour of TV news shows Sunday. Faced with a rapid series of moves by North Korea to renounce a 1994 deal with Washington and restart an effort to produce weapons-grade plutonium from spent nuclear fuel, Powell made no threat of military action.
Instead, U.S. officials say the plan is to work through Asian allies, as well as the United Nations, to try to further isolate Pyongyang unless it curbs its nuclear ambitions.
U.S. policy is being driven by three principles: a refusal to reward North Korea's breaking of the 1994 pact; a recognition that a war with North Korea could result in huge U.S. casualties; and a desire to avoid direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang, which is what the administration believes North Korea wants.
"The international community has made clear that North Korea's relations with the outside world hinge on its termination of its nuclear programs," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Monday in Crawford, Texas, where President Bush is at his ranch.
U.S. allies in the region, however, would prefer a diplomatic offensive led by Washington and appear to have little interest in playing "bad cop" with North Korea.
"They have no stomach for confrontation," Cato Institute foreign policy analyst Ted Galen Carpenter says. "They all seem to assume that if we have the right carrots to offer Pyongyang, North Korea will negotiate and resume non-nuclear status."
A look at key U.S. allies:
Japan: Tokyo is most likely to go along with a tough U.S. diplomatic line. As the only country in the world that has had nuclear weapons used against it, Japan greatly fears a nuclear North Korea. "It's a big threat," says Misako Kaji, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. "We're in range of their missiles."
Japan already is withholding rice shipments to North Korea and is considering other restrictions on money transfers and trade. But analysts say Tokyo also fears that tough economic and diplomatic measures could so destabilize the North Korean regime that it could lash out at its neighbors.
South Korea: No country has more to fear from a nuclear North Korea; even a conventional war with Pyongyang would devastate Seoul, the South Korean capital.
But South Korea remains committed to a policy of engagement, not isolation, with its northern neighbor. President Kim Dae Jung said Monday that isolating the communist state would not work. Kim, who is to step down Feb. 25, told a Cabinet meeting, "Pressuring and isolating communist countries have never been successful — Cuba is one example."
President-elect Roh Moo Hyun also supports dialogue with North Korea and has advocated lessening South Korea's dependence on the United States, which has 37,000 troops stationed there.
China: President Jiang Zemin and Bush said they both oppose any nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula when they met in October at Bush's ranch. But U.S. officials question how aggressive China has really been in pressuring its fellow communist neighbor.
China fears the aftershocks of economic and diplomatic pressure, particularly if thousands of North Korean refugees begin surging across the Chinese border.
Russia: For the sake of regional security, Moscow also wants to deter North Korea's drive for nuclear weapons. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Monday that Pyongyang's recent actions "cannot help but provoke regret."
But Ivanov also urged Washington to tone down its "aggressive rhetoric," expressing Russia's historic distaste for any diplomatic circumstance in which the United States seems to be imposing its will on the world. |
