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Technology Stocks : FirstWave Technologies (FSTW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (7410)	12/31/2002 1:57:58 PM
From: TEDennis	Respond to of 9677

Bob: This is really a tricky quarter to guess at. The expectation that MSFT's CRM would be available in Q4 probably gave some prospects reason to delay their decisions. On the other hand, closures for Q4 were probably from negotiations started several months ago. The state of the product also comes in to play. Were customers waiting for the "release" of the new product before signing up for pilots/POCs? Can't tell from out here. Here's the way I see it ... Maintenance revenues will be down from last Q4 because of the declining TakeControl client base. Services will be up because of the ongoing customizations at the UK govt and the UK Football Association. There are full teams deployed there (I think). License revenues are the tough one to call. Last Q, they had two large $100K+ contracts, but they were both for barter. That's a concern, because the other five weren't much to speak of. And, the largest of the sub-100K licenses was for the developer seats at the FA. I doubt there will be any more seats purchased there until the "applications" are turned over to the end users, which I expect to be in the Feb/Mar time frame (SWAG). The "new product" is still undefined "out here". Was it just V8 with a workflow manager added, or was it a total re-write? I suspect it was somewhere in between. I doubt that EL wrote an entire replacement CRM package for FSTW. They could have created a bunch of templates to perform the same work, but I doubt it. On the other hand, it's sure taking a long time, considering that the Workflow manager was built for TSYS. FSTW apparently bought "version 2" which was "well under way" at the end of May (a little research goes a long way). Summarizing: I think your 16 cents is a little low, primarily because of the large services projects currently underway. The license revenues will be very interesting. And, so will the rationalization of why they're where they are. With no idea of what the services are costing them (meaning, how many of EL's staff are onsite at the FA), it's hard to come up with a firm answer. SWAG: 21 cents. TED