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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10957)	1/1/2003 10:15:24 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Gold & Silver Review of 12/30/02 By: Erik Gebhard, President, Altavest Worldwide Trading, Inc. February Gold: Close = $344.1, -$5.6 In somewhat thin trading conditions gold wasn’t able to find a footing and by the end of the session the bears had pressed prices into the red. Was today an end-of-year profit taking frenzy for gold bulls, after all, who wouldn’t be inclined to pocket some well-deserved profits? However, there is a bit more to the story, as energies collapsed and gold technicals were overbought thereby giving the yellow metal additional cause to take a breather. The geopolitical scenario intensified as several Americans were killed in Yemen. The arms inspection process in Iraq continues to be a nebulous monster. Stocks were mixed but the dollar was a bit lower. Energies however were quite active, with crude rallying over 100 points to a new contract high then closing over 100 points lower! Phew, the energies are not for the faint of heart! As crude shifted into the red late in the session the gold market had one less excuse to remain buoyant and it slipped faster into negative territory. The energy markets are nervous over Iraq, and even more relevant is that the oil strike in Venezuela is coming to a boiling point. However, OPEC is claiming that they’ll step up production if prices remain over $30 for over 20 consecutive sessions, and considering that crude has rallied over $7.50 in December, prices were due for a corrective technical pullback. The CRB is at 5-year highs, and at the expense of paper-based assets. Obviously investors are not thrilled with the prospect of high opportunity costs, and with their cash earning almost nothing thanks to easy money policy by the Fed, and with stocks chopping around, they’ve reasserted their interest in commodities. People are seeking alternative money generating mechanisms, and commodities and gold have been cast in a positive light. As we’ve said this month, “expect periods of consolidation and use them as buying opportunities.” And, with some oscillators a bit overbought, temporarily lower prices would repair indicators and be healthy for the longer-term bullish cause. The risk in this market the next few months to a year certainly appears to be on the short side. Use corrections to establish long positions, as it’s highly probable that $400 will be hit. If you are long Feb futures near $317 or have several call options as per TradeScope be sure to watch daily for order adjustments. Remember, futures and options offer much flexibility as one can just as easily be short or long any market. Each contract/option = 100 ounces, a $1 move in a futures contract = $100. Contact me anytime to discuss strategies to fit your needs. To open an account and receive trading recommendations on gold futures or options contracts (also stock indices, energies, currencies, etc.), or to use PaperTrader Online contact me at erik@altavest.com. Visit www.altavest.com to request a Free Starter Kit. Keep in mind that there is risk of loss in all trading. March Silver: Close = 467.3, -5.0-cents We’ve consolidated for the last two weeks, but the upward bias continues. As with gold, the path of least resistance appears higher, but dips are to be anticipated and even used as buying opportunities. A charge over the recent high of 477.5 will likely send us to 500, and there should be support near 456 on a closing basis. Always maintain your perspective by keeping an eye on daily, weekly and monthly charts as opposed to intra-day charts. Each contract/option = 5,000 ounces, a 1-cent move in a futures contract = $50. goldseek.com