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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (53351)	1/1/2003 3:12:05 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hello Everyone... ...and thanks Eric for the WSJ article wrapping up the last of a really bad year. I hope the next one will be better, but it's my view as of now that we may not have one. I've some concerns, macro concerns. Most troubling to me is that the usefulness of stock investing to many may go out of favor. During the 90's, individuals plowed money into the market like never before in my memory and probably not since the 20's. I've seen figures that roughly 80% of Americans have money in the market, compared to a longer term average closer to 40%. Foreign investment in our stock represents 11% of the money, Pension funds account for 22%, Individuals, Mutuals, and 401K's add up to something like 60%...figures from CNBC yesterday. The dollar is under some pressure from the Euro and the Yen, and if our market isn't working for us, it won't work for them either. A dollar drain on the U.S. Stock market means stock prices cannot rise. A weaker dollar helps our exporters of course, but it increases the prices we'll pay in dollars for imports...so inflation could be in the wings, mild perhaps, but more than we hope for. Inflation reduces savings and investment, and if the Fed sees it coming, then you know what the Fed will do. That cools the housing market as mortgage rates rise, refinancing slows, and the last "wealth effect" source of consumer spending begins to wither. I hope I'm flat-ass wrong about all this, but for this moment, I'm calling 2003 flat to down again. I've a lot of things to be grateful for from 2002. Tanner, my youngest son, finished his college work in Chemistry at UC-Irvine with about a 3.0. That's not too shabby. He didn't get anybody pregnant, but he did total three cars, one of them last night. Luckily no one was drinking in either car, and no one got more than scrapes and bruises, thanks to airbags. Everybody was walking and talking, no overnight stays in the hospital for "observation." But even Tanner, so unconcerned about economics, said over breakfast, that maybe now's a good time to conserve my money...drive a cheaper car and pay less insurance. I'm still going to put new money into my brokerage account, but I'm not buying anything with it yet. I may...and I have targets in mind...and price points...so if my mood changes, I'll be ready. Meanwhile, I hope the Bush team can do some of the right things...and that Congress will help not hinder. For everyone, I wish you happiness in your lives, and in your pocketbooks, for 2003. If you can have only one, make it the former. chaz