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To: fedhead who wrote (151177)	1/1/2003 10:03:14 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Anindo, I believe this period economically is similar to the early 90s and not the 30s and therefore I don't think we are sitting on the edge of a financial meltdown... thats how I differ from the bearish sentiment. However, I am not calling the bottom on stocks here at this moment... maybe you think I am?... I am only saying that since I believe the mkts will recover and especially the naz after this meltdown will return to a strong bull at some point... the current time is fine for me for LTBH investing. I may not get the exact bottom but thats ok. What I like about this mkt is, there are NO startups, no "disruptive technologies" to speak of- we know who the leaders are for the most part, who the wildcards are and who those that won't make it are. In the early 90s there was a speculative real estate and art bubble (fueled by japanese yen) that was really out of this world as far as valuations... trillions of wealth "lost" in peoples homes it was a dramatic reverse wealth effect. That was a bubble bursting it just wasn't a stock market bubble so there was nothing in the history books about it... no dow housing index or anything. Anyway trillions in wealth wiped out and a declining stock market too... lots of layoffs and war. 3 years or so of basing and then 93/94 which was choppy and then back to a bull market for stocks. It took 8 years or so but those super overpriced houses from 1990 eventually reached their old highs and beyond but homeowners were negative for a long time. Up until then, california real estate "never" went down. It was a landmark event and all these real estate people were proclaiming the end of RE as an investment but in the end, not much happened it was just a RE market correction after a speculative bubble in the 80s that was unreal. Thats what we just experienced in the stock market and I expect the eventual outcome to be similar. I recently read overall naz mkt capitalization is 1/8 of peak now. We know the #issues are at 20-year low, and continuing to contract. The indexes don't tell the whole story of how brutal this correction was. I'm satisfied the excesses have been worked out, its close enough for me. One huge difference between you and me though is that I know my business software is trying to crawl out for the last 6 mos or so. Lots of fits and starts but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe if you saw the same in your industry you would feel differently. I'm hoping networking picks up in the next few mos. Lizzie