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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83611)	1/2/2003 4:48:46 PM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 99985

<<How do you come to your opinion that there will be higher unemployment and higher interest rates in the future. My recollection of prior periods when unemployment goes up (and the economy is weak), interest rates come down>> Tom. First, I am not very knowing about bonds or interest rates. Some will say that is true about almost everything that I predict or generally talk about ... <G>. Bonds falling apart are all apart of the big picture end game I see for this secular bear. As the dollar continues to fall (even against the yen, and especially against the yen very late in the cycle), eventually, a lot of Asian capital will depart the U.S. This will also be true for Asia in general. Bonds must fall, and yields increase to attract capital at that point (not to mention how artificially low yields are right now). Until that late stage arrives, most of the dollar's decline will be based on more gains for the Euro. As far as higher unemployment, I think that will be mostly caused by a serious financial crisis and consumer credit and spending collapse. Note: I have a small percentage of my portfolio invested in US Dollar MAR puts, S&P MAR puts and Gold APR calls ... I will probably sell them all at once between now and mid-February if they are doing well, and then buy more for June, September or December. I also have some 'story' stocks which are not doing well, and lots of cash - well above 50%. <<does that imply you don't think Bush is moderate? (g)>> Some, and only some of the recent dollar slump is caused by the rest of the world's perception of Mr Bush and his administration and their constant role of world fearmonger. GWB is still very popular here ... at least for now. Note: There were four or 5 separate articles in The Financial Times today about the negative short and long term prospects for the dollar. That is very unusual in depth coverage for them. Ken Wilson