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To: reaper who wrote (62648)1/2/2003 5:28:37 PM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Yes, I would lean in that direction. There was a 90% upside day on January 3, 1974 that marked the one big failure of the system (came a month after the 5th 90% downside day). The market turned back down within a week, with a 90% downside day on January 9.

On the other hand, the January 1975 90% upside day also came a month after the last 90% downside day, but there were nine 90% downside days in 1974, whereas we had just one in 2002 (September 3).

The signals are most reliable when the 90% upside day comes within a week to 10 days of the final 90% downside day.