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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (16350)	1/2/2003 5:32:19 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206186

Did you notice the date? Perhaps you should consider NOAA predictions intermediate term and LT for this past October, November and December. 0 for 3 strike out. I dont really understand the technical aspects of weather forecasting much, but Bastardi lays out the arguments why NOAA has been off and he has been ahead of their forecasts more times than not. After this Arctic blast it wont matter if we are above normal for the rest of the Winter, unless it is way way above normal over the whole period.

To: Tommaso who wrote (16350)	1/3/2003 9:00:24 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206186

Tommaso, CPC has been so far off base this year they are not worthy of being followed. Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo (Intellicast) have been much more accurate. Joe B caught the end of the drought in the East almost real time, an admirable performance. My own winter forecast dates from late September, (earlier than the Joe's, a natural indicators advantage) with updates in October, for below normal temperatures in the East, large snow storm and cold over the holidays. Also a whopper of a snow storm expected +/- 10 days from New Years, but I have recently pushed that back a bit further into January, as the recent parade of storms in the East may have stolen some "thunder" from the Big One I expected. There is more of a chance of the weather turning dry in late January than of temperatures returning to the above normal mode of the last few years. This is because my analog year for Jan Feb is 1978 "with a twist" and El Nino observations below. Much below average temperatures in January, also forecast, may extend well into February, with some pullbacks to normal along the way but short lived. It is my humble opinion that the new GFS model needs some repair work and that the CPC has El Ninoitis. El Nino is currently in decline. If it continues to decline then the storms will eventually subside, but the temps will drop even further into the ice box! I have been riding the yellow metal for quite awhile, but have also been eating my own cooking per my winter forecasts and so have been accumulating NG sector companies also. DISCLAIMER, Nobody pays me for this stuff, so you get what you get with no obligations, not investment advice, etc etc. Best of luck to all energy investors in the New Year, Roebear