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To: Shack who wrote (62655)1/2/2003 6:08:44 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I believe we saw the majority of the up move today, but I believe we will have some extension over the next several days. I'm still looking for a minimum of 360 BTK and 326 SOXX before I'm ready to call a local top.



To: Shack who wrote (62655)1/2/2003 8:08:51 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
More from Brian
Comments?

Today's rally canceled out some potential counts and gave two alternative counts a high probability. Since the S&P broke above last Thursday's high, it is highly probable that either market action since December 10 is corrective or this whole decline is corrective. Here are two possible counts

stockcharts.com[d,a]eholyyay[da][p][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J9122830,Y]

tinyurl.com

The light blue count would have December 10 as wave 1, and everything since as an extended flat correction, with wave C moving up now. Wave C could end at any of the Fib. Retracement levels listed.

The green count has the entire decline from December 2 as a correction, with another A-B-C rally starting. That would take the S&P above its high of 954.

I would say that the green count is unlikely, largely because of the technical state of the market. Despite today's rally, the BP chart for the S&P barely moved and is still below the 10 and 20 day MA's. At the lows of July and October, the BP jumped right away when the turn came – so we'll see what happens in the next few days.

tinyurl.com

The NYSE Summation edged over is MA's. This is to be watched.

tinyurl.com

The VIX also broke down; suggesting some kind of rally is underway.

tinyurl.com

All the Best,
Brian



To: Shack who wrote (62655)1/3/2003 11:02:22 AM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Going back to 1960, I found 12 isolated 90% upside days (more than one month from a 90% downside day). Seven led to rallies, and 5 marked tops. As I said, it's not neutral, but there's no way to tell which way this one goes.