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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (212250)	1/2/2003 9:05:01 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

What gives? Gold surges to a 5-1/2- year high, the dollar is at the lowest level in almost three years and bond yields are at 40 year lows and yet the stock market has been up for five months. It doesn’t get any more obvious that the US government is manipulating the stock market. Goodyear had its long-term debt rating lowered two notches by S&P to BB- from BB+. Consumer replacement shipments were 1% lower in November. Buried deep or hardly mentioned were statements by Yuri Fedotov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, which stressed the need for a political and diplomatic solution to the possible conflict with Iraq. The US would risk jeopardizing the fight against terrorism and would be in violation of international law if it launched unilateral military action against Iraq, said Mr. Fedotov. There is no precedent for anything called "regime change" under international law. This is why Mr. Bush has to get UN approval for an invasion. Even if he wins he could go before a war crimes tribunal. Interest on long-term investment grade bonds has fallen to 6.84% on average, the lowest level since 1974. Moody’s downgraded a record 647 ratings this year, edging past the 645 last year. It upgraded 129 ratings, the fewest since 1991 when it upped 120. Retail sales growth for November and December was 1.5%, the lowest since 1970, when statistics began being recorded. Expectedly it was not a good Christmas for retailers, but are consumers expected to carry the economy forever? David Kopel, a former prosecutor and Deputy Attorney General, who is also a Professor of Law and Criminology at NYU, says that gun ownership for home protection is greatly beneficial to the community. Burglars do not know which of their potential victims may be armed. These burglars must take care to avoid entering any home where a victim might be armed and present. Because about 50% of all American homes contain a gun, burglars tend to avoid all occupied homes. That means fewer burglaries and less violence. When victims are at home during a hot robbery, the death rate is six times the death rate from street muggings. Only 13% of American burglaries are committed when the premises are occupied. In Canada the percentage is four times higher. In cities such as Vancouver, home invasion burglaries aimed at the elderly have become epidemic and murders of the elderly during these burglaries are all too frequent. The percentage of burglaries occurring when people are home is 48% in Holland and 59% in England where people are not allowed to have guns. Thus, only criminals have guns. It is safer for the robber in the US to commit an armed robbery than to break and enter. It, of course, is safer to live in a state that allows concealed carry. 2003 looks like it will be even more difficult than 2000, 2001 and 2002 for the economy and the stock market. We see only a slight improvement in the current account deficit, which needs $1.9 billion daily inflow by foreigners to maintain. Much is said every day regarding war with Iraq. Thus far, no evidence has come forth that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. Until such evidence is found we don’t believe the US will get UN approval to invade. If invasion is unilateral, win or lose, George Bush could find himself on trial at The Hague. If a war takes place and it lasts 30 days or less oil prices should move up to $40.00 a barrel and eventually return to $14 to $18 a barrel. Natural gas could run up to $8.00 a MCF and then return to $3.00 to $3.50. If the war is protracted and lasts for more than a month then oil could go to $70.00 to $100.00 a barrel and gas to $15.00 to $20.00. 2003 will see a lower dollar at 1.17 euros, which would be approximately a 25% correction. The Swiss franc would break resistance at 1.38 and move up to 1.25 to the dollar. All currencies will fall substantially versus gold. If the Fed increases aggregates by 30 to 50% we will have temporary higher inflation followed by steep deflation in 2004, 2005 and 2006. This would be another holding action and nothing more. A lower dollar will cause internal inflation and external deflation. All currencies will feed on this deflation and move proportionally lower. This, of course, will give the Dow an opportunity to test 4500. The USA Patriot Act and Fatherland Security will trample our rights and freedom and the incumbent costs will slow the economy. Business in turn will struggle to survive. The GDP growth estimates will prove again for the fourth year in a row to be dreams from demented minds. The many bankruptcies and the expanding unemployment will worsen. The government will become more blatant in their lying statistics and their manipulation of the stock and gold markets. We may even discover they have little or no gold left. The world will begin to withdraw from free trade and globalization as the world economy continues to falter. Remember in April 2000 the experts said we’d be back in a bull market and booming economy in six to nine months. Federal taxes may fall after a violent battle in Congress but either way, states will raise taxes and insurance costs will continue their relentless rise. Deficit spending will become $400 billion, making the dollar an unattractive holding. Gold will go to $512.00 an ounce and probably to $840.00 an ounce. Fortunes will be made in precious metals and precious metal stocks. JP Morgan Chase is slipping deeper into the mire. Management’s stock options have fallen out of the money, having been set at $36.85 a share. The recent JP Morgan price was about $22.00 a share. New options have been cut by 60% and chief William Harrison has told employees they have to work harder and have a can-do attitude. Each employee will get 175 options versus 375 in 2001. We have news for them. They won’t get to cash these in either. SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION: 1-year $99.95 U.S. Funds. Make check payable to Robert Chapman, (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to: P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, Fl 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and email address. We accept VISA and MasterCard charges. Please provide us with your card number and expiration date. We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Please note, we publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by email. Our email is: bif4653@comcast.net or info@intlforecaster.com.