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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve168 who wrote (336722)	1/2/2003 10:36:15 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Re: Did anyone here read Baldur's posts in the past and can confirm he was negative? Baldur is more accurate, informed and realistic than the majority of the flock who post on this thread. He's no powderpuff intellectual bantamweight who willingly scurries to hide within the malevolent chest feathers of our Chickenhawk-In-Chief. ************** Re: There are many problems in US economy and stock market. But do we have to experience more downside after a 73% drop in NASDAQ? Wrong question. What you need to ask is this pair -- Is the NASDAQ currently overvalued on a historical basis and on the basis of expected IRR and ROE? The answer to both questions is decidedly "yes". For the NASDAQ to be rationally priced, either the profitability of the indexed companies would have to rise dramatically (an unlikely event in a time of deflation) or the price of stocks should reflect the prospects of these companies more realistically. A NASDAQ priced at 800 would begin to be realistic and rational. *********** Re: If consumer keep spending and the economy grow again Ummm, I guess you missed the news about Christmas sales, eh?

To: Steve168 who wrote (336722)	1/3/2003 4:19:07 AM
From: Baldur Fjvlnisson	Respond to of 769670

Steve, huge issues weigh on the U.S. economy and market. I'll just tick off a few. 1. Massive overvaluation by historical standards. The stock market is selling at 100% of GDP, the historical average is 50-70% at best. And the market is way overpriced on any other measure. The "margins" and "earnings" of many big corporations are little more than fairy tales. If you count in cost of stock options; major U.S. stock watering scams haven't made a real penny for years. 2. Stupendous deception and obfuscation in the marketplace. According to SEC estimates; 3 trillion dollars are hidden off corporate balance sheets. So called "reforms" are mostly whitewashing of criminals. Major garbage is being fined a cent on the dollar as you can see. This market has little if any credibility left and it could take decades to regain. 3. HUGE holes in pension plans. For example GM has underfunded obligations to the tune of a cool 60 billion dollars. They and others will be forced to compensate for this and this will cut into their earnings and dividends. 4. Record levels of household and consumer debt. Personal savings rate is near a record low. Credit downgrades are skyrocketing and bankruptcies are ballooning. So are home foreclosures. 5. U.S. states are in dire fiscal straits. Many of them are de facto bankrupt. This mess will lead to cut programs and higher taxes both of which will hurt household income and spending. 6. Massive overcapacity on most fronts. U.S. manufacturing is largely dead. Even at zero %; it's not competitive. It has lost jobs for 27 consecutive months now. China and Asia are busy exporting deflation to the west and nobody can compete in price with them. 7. Huge fiscal and trade deficits are tanking the dollar. Foreign capital will continue fleeing this mess. Traders and businessmen simply do not trust Bush and his administration. There is no economic policy; just money printing and artificial interest rates. It's funny numbers and funny money. Nobody is minding the store. It's three months into the new fiscal year and there's no budget. In the meantime Bush runs on rubber checks and his economic team scatters like mice. At some point the Chinese, the world's largest dollar accumulator, will take pre-emptive action and dump their dollars - with disastrous consequences.