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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4721)	1/4/2003 12:03:04 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Sarmad, interesting arguments. BTW, chip sales were $18B [left scale] per month in late 2000. Now they are under $13B per month. Unit shipments must be down because ASPs, while down, aren't down that much. Anyone have ASP vs time? home.attbi.com G.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4721)	1/4/2003 4:08:42 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

I think there is a simpler and more direct way of following the supply/demand balance: capacity utilization at foundries. Over the last 3 years, it has varied from 105% to 30%. --------------- From a 12/16/02 Barron's story: Taiwan Semiconductor, UMC and Chartered Semi, which boast some of the world's most efficient foundries, have been gaining market share because other chip makers outsource to them. But, in what is supposed to be the year's seasonally strongest quarter, they're running at only 30%-60% of capacity. --------------

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4721)	1/6/2003 5:22:47 PM
From: Fred Levine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

My 2 cents re capital spending. Altho I am entirely ignorant, it seems to me that except for the life-span of the equipment, capital spending is a function of the competition, the demand, and the cost-benefit ratios of the new machines. If the new machines can make chips cheaper, which is their purpose, and they generate greater savings than other ROI's, capex will expand. Competition enters in that Intel is forever trying to undersell AMD and gain a cruel edge. What is important, IMHO, is whether AMAT can beat other equipment companies, and by how much, in lowering production costs and making better products when the inevitable need for cheaper and more chips occurs. Given the huge research budget and the past history of increasing market share, I'm sitting tight. fred