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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (26801)	1/4/2003 2:36:42 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

",unless folks sober up, that is not to be." I think the real threat of nuclear weapons will make everyone sober, serious, and cooperative. This intervention is likely to be done by the more experinced foreign policy people. Possibly with everyone else being told to shut up. In the U.S., I have not seen ANY independent statements on North Korea by politicians - you could have heard many different voices on Taiwan, Palestine, etc. I don't see the U.S. putting troops in Taiwan. In fact, I would expect there is a possiblity that the Bush admiistration will build good relations with China - remember, they are realists. Since China stopped exporting communism into every "national liberation" movement, there are only a few issues on which China and the U.S. really disagree. The areas of agreement are much stronger, and include economic development, regional stability, and others. Let's look at a worse case possiblity, however, with the North Korea situation - 1. North Invades South, grabs Seoul, push about 1/2 way down through South Korea until they run out of logistics train and encouter heavy conventional resistance from SOuth Koreans and Allied air power from Guam and Okinawa. Okay, now how to we get the DPRK to leave the South ? Re-stage Inchon landing ? - It would take almost a year to get the troops. Either the Iraq attack would need to be postponned or the U.S. would need to use tactical nukes. If the DPRK has a nuclear cpability they could use to hit major cities in Japan, that option would tend to be foreclosed.